3 MLB Strikeout Props to Back for ALCS Game 4 on October 16

Friday’s baseball slate is as simple as it gets: one game, Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 8:00 PM ET on TBS and truTV, and Cleveland leads the series 2-1. The NLCS is already over, so this is the only MLB game on the board.

That makes pitcher strikeout props the cleanest way to attack it, and also the trickiest. Tampa Bay has a likely starter, but Cleveland has not named one and is expected to lean on a bullpen game. Rain is also in the forecast, and a postponement to Saturday could change who takes the ball. Read through all three picks below, then check the starters and your book before you bet.

Nick Martinez Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+100 FanDuel)

Nick Martinez is the expected Rays starter, and his strikeout line is posted at 2.5. FanDuel has the over at +100, while DraftKings and ESPN list it around +108, with the under near -137. That is a low bar for a pitcher who threw 180 innings this season, so the price is the interesting part: you are getting even money or better on a number he has cleared in 9 of his last 10 outings, with a 3.9 strikeout average over that stretch.

Here is the context in plain terms. Martinez finished the regular season 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, which means he rarely lets runners on base. He is not a power pitcher, though. He piled up 109 strikeouts in 180 innings, a modest rate, and that is exactly why the sportsbooks set his line so low. Three strikeouts is a realistic target even for a pitcher who leans on soft contact.

The matchup also helps. Martinez threw 13 scoreless innings against Cleveland in two starts this season: seven innings in a 1-0 win at Progressive Field on April 28 and six more in a 3-0 win at Tropicana Field on July 25. The Guardians hit just .159 against him in those two games. A lineup that has seen him twice and still could not solve him is a good one to back him against.

The risk is length. Martinez worked just 3 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium (three strikeouts), and he has allowed six runs over his last two outings. If the Rays pull him early, the over gets harder. That short leash is the reason to shop the number and not overpay for it.

Martinez Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-140 BetMGM)

Our second pick backs the same pitcher a different way. The strikeout line depends on Martinez’s stuff, while the outs line depends on how long Tampa Bay lets him pitch. Outs recorded simply counts every out he gets, so 11.5 means he needs to finish the fourth inning and get at least one out in the fifth.

The Rays’ pitching situation points toward a longer outing. Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta and Griffin Jax handled the first three games, so Martinez is the rested arm Tampa Bay wants on the mound to get back in the series. Against Cleveland in the regular season he went seven innings and six innings, so he has shown he can work deep into games against this lineup.

Cleveland’s expected bullpen game also matters. With no traditional starter on the other side, there is less reason for the Rays to rush a pitching change in the early innings. The price is steep at -140, so this is a play to make only if Martinez is confirmed as the starter. The number comes from the BetMGM listing, so check your own book before locking it in.

The Guardians Pitching Plan: Where to Look for Value

Our third pick comes with an honest caveat. Cleveland has not announced a starter, and as of this writing we could not verify a posted strikeout line for any Guardians pitcher in this game. Manager Stephen Vogt has said he will not name a pitcher until he arrives at the ballpark, so there is no number to hand you here.

What we do know shapes the plan. The expected approach is a bullpen game, with lefty Joey Cantillo, right-handers Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi, opener Daniel Espino and veteran Shawn Armstrong listed as the likeliest options. Espino has opened four times since September, though he also threw a scoreless inning in Game 3 of the ALDS and may be less available. Cleveland’s bullpen carries a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs, and closer Cade Smith struck out both Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero to end Game 3.

The angle is simple: Tampa Bay struck out 13 times in Game 3 and managed only three hits. When a lineup is swinging and missing at that rate, the Cleveland pitchers who throw the bulk innings become interesting strikeout props. If your book posts a line for Cantillo, Cecconi or Bibee once the plan is official, the over on a low number is worth a look. Do not bet a Guardians strikeout prop until the pitcher is confirmed, because a different arm changes everything.

Weather matters too. If rain pushes the game to Saturday, Cleveland could turn to Foster Griffin, who started Game 1, and the Rays could bring Rasmussen back on normal rest instead of Martinez. Either change would reset the lines, so treat today’s numbers as provisional.

Lock These In (After You Check the Starters)

If the game goes off as scheduled with Martinez on the mound, these are the plays to watch. Before you bet, our betting calculator can show you payouts, and you can compare prices across books on the live MLB odds page.

• Nick Martinez OVER 2.5 strikeouts (+100 FanDuel, up to +108 elsewhere)
• Nick Martinez OVER 11.5 outs recorded (-140 BetMGM)
• Guardians bulk reliever strikeouts: check your book once Cleveland names its pitcher (no line verified yet)

The pitching plan on one side is a mystery, the forecast is shaky, and the total is only 6.5 runs. That favors pitching props, but only if you confirm who is actually throwing before first pitch. Please bet responsibly, and visit our responsible gambling page if you need help.