The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for us. We went 7-1 last week with our strikeout props and were seeing things beautifully. Oh well, it was still nice to recharge the proverbial batteries for a few days.
Since there are no sports on the calendar today, let’s get a head start on tomorrow’s baseball card. Here are 3 MLB Strikeout Props for Friday, July 14. Best of luck with your bets! It’s great to have real baseball back in our lives!
Yu Darvish OVER 5.5 Strikeouts -110 (FanDuel)
I made this line 5.5 but with around -140 of juice toward the Over. Darvish hasn’t had a great year, but he’s still striking out plenty of batters. The majority of sportsbooks have this Over in the -130 range, so the -110 at FanDuel presents a fair amount of value.
For the season, Darvish is averaging almost 6 strikeouts per start. He’s gone over this number of Ks in 7 of his last 11 starts and shouldn’t have any trouble racking up strikeouts against Philadelphia.
The Phillies rank 24th in all of baseball in K-rate, as they fan an average of 9.11 times per game. Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos all have trouble with nasty curveballs, and Darvish has one of those in his arsenal.
Justin Verlander UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts +106 (FanDuel)
I hate to be the one to tell y’all this, but Father Time is finally starting to catch up with Mr. Verlander. His K-rate is only in the 28th percentile, and his Whiff Rate is only in the 24th percentile. I’m kicking myself for not betting this at +114 when FanDuel first opened this Under.
For the season, Verlander is only averaging 4.75 strikeouts per start. He’s stayed under this total in 8 of his 12 starts in 2023. His curveball still has a decent amount of break, but he’s been getting hit pretty hard so far.
The Dodgers only rank in the middle of the road as far as team K-rate. They have 6 everyday players with a strikeout rate of 19% or less (Smith, Rojas, Peralta, Betts, Freeman, Heyward). The plus money on this one is a gift!
JP France UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts +105 (DraftKings)
France is an okay starter for the Astros, and his cutter is pretty good. However, the 28-year-old is not a big strikeout pitcher. He only ranks in the 16th percentile in K-rate and has only struck out 48 batters in 66.1 innings of work.
The former Mississippi State Bulldog has stayed under this strikeout total in 8 of his 11 starts this season. France is only averaging 4.3 Ks per start, and the median K number is 3.5. This looks like another plus-money gift.
France pitched against the Angels back on June 4th. He only struck out 3 batters in that appearance. We think France will finish with 3 or 4 strikeouts in this one. Play the Under!