3 MLB Player Props for Tuesday, July 18
We took the dreaded golden sombrero last night, as our MLB strikeout props ended up going 0-3. Sonny Gray came close to cashing for us, but he ended up with only 5 strikeouts. Drew Smyly and Logan Gilbert also let us down.
That’s just how it goes sometimes in baseball betting. Oh well, we’re still 9-5 over our last 14 plays. Let’s get right with 3 MLB player props for Tuesday, July 18.
Mitch Keller OVER 4.5 Strikeouts +122 (FanDuel)
Yes, I know that the Guardians don’t strike out that often at all, but this number is just way too low! Keller has gone over this number of Ks in 16 of his 19 starts in 2023! That trend alone made us jump on this juicy plus-money price.
Keller has really good stuff, and his K-rate of 26.7% ranks in the 71st percentile in the majors. The powerful young righty is averaging 6.79 strikeouts per start. I made this number 5.5, even with Cleveland’s low-K lineup.
We love Keller’s cutter, which moves a ton and often leaves hitters frozen. It only tops out at 90mph, but the late movement makes it very hard to hit. Take the Over!
Jameson Taillon UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts -150 (PointsBet)
This is a little more juice than I wanted to pay, but I highly doubt that the Nats strike out as much as they did last night. Washington only strikes out 7.11 times per game, which ranks 2nd in MLB only to Cleveland.
Taillon is only averaging 4.2 strikeouts per start this season. Taillon has a good curveball, but his 20.3% strikeout rate only ranks in the 32nd percentile.
Also, his whiff rate of 20.5% ranks in the 14th percentile. He shouldn’t be able to strike out many Nats in this one, especially since Washington has 6 hitters with a K-rate of under 21%.
Bailey Ober OVER 5.5 Strikeouts -105 (BetMGM)
Sonny Gray may have let us down against this Seattle lineup last night, but Mr. Ober should set things right for us in Game 2. Ober has a K-rate of 24.6%, which ranks in the 60th percentile.
His whiff rate is also pretty good, at 28.3%. The Mariners rank 29th in the majors in K-rate, and they have 5 everyday players who strike out more than 25% of the time.
Ober is averaging 5.64 strikeouts per start and has gone over this total in 9 of his 14 starts in 2023. He’s a big tall right-hander with an extension that ranks in the 99th percentile. His fastball may only top out around 91mph, but it moves like crazy. Let’s ride the Over!
Senior Sports Betting Contributor
Mike Noblin is a seasoned handicapper and the lead sports betting author at Hello Rookie. Mike has been involved with the industry for two decades, and has worked as a full time analyst and writer for the past three years. He covers a wide variety of sports, including the NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball, and MLB.