3 MLB Player Props for Monday, July 17
Our Friday MLB props ended up going 2-1, which means we’re 9-2 over our last 11 selections! Yu Darvish and JP France easily cashed for us Friday evening. Our only blemish was Justin Verlander, who struck out 6 hitters to bust our under ticket.
Let’s stay hot with 3 MLB player props for Monday, July 17. Thanks for reading and best of luck with all of your props tonight.
Drew Smyly UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts -135 (BetMGM)
This is probably our favorite play on the Monday card! Smyly is a serviceable starter for the Cubs, but he’s not a strikeout guy. Not only that, but Smyly will face the Nationals tonight, who have the lowest strikeouts per game rate in all of baseball.
Just how well does this Washington team put the ball in play? Well, 4 of the guys in their lineup have a K-rate of 18.1% or less. That nudges us in the direction of the Under.
Smyly is only averaging 4.39 strikeouts per start in 2023. When you analyze all of his starts from this season, the median lands at 4 strikeouts. Throw in the fact that Smyly has stayed under this total in 12 of his 18 starts, and we have the recipe for a nice Under!
Sonny Gray OVER 5.5 Strikeouts -140 (FanDuel)
This one just barely made the cut, but we think it’s worth a play. Gray has a K-rate of 24.1% this season, which is respectable. However, we love the fact that Gray’s K-rate against this Mariners lineup is 31.7%!
Seattle has some hitters with some pop, but most of them strike out quite a bit. Five of the M’s everyday players have a K-rate of 25.2% or higher. If Gray has his curveball working, he should rack up 6 or more strikeouts pretty easily.
For the season, Gray is averaging 5.61 strikeouts per start. His whiff rate of 27.1% is also pretty decent. Let’s bank on a big night for the former Vandy alum.
Logan Gilbert OVER 7.5 Strikeouts +120 (BetMGM)
I’m not too crazy about needing a guy to get 8 strikeouts in a game, but Gilbert certainly has the stuff to make that happen. The tall young right-hander has a K-rate of 36.4% against this Minnesota lineup. That stat alone makes us think that the plus money is worth a shot!
The Twins rank dead last in baseball in strikeout rate, as they fan 10.10 times per game. They have six hitters with a K-rate of 24.5% or higher. Gilbert may have only fanned 8 or more batters in 3 starts this season, but Minnesota is a great candidate to be #4.
Senior Sports Betting Contributor
Mike Noblin is a seasoned handicapper and the lead sports betting author at Hello Rookie. Mike has been involved with the industry for two decades, and has worked as a full time analyst and writer for the past three years. He covers a wide variety of sports, including the NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball, and MLB.