3 Huge MLB Bets to Make This Week

Reynaldo Lopez Pitching for the Braves is One of the Best Bets

As we head into the middle of the season, we’re really starting to see which teams and players are for real. While it’s not in stone, we do have a good idea of which teams are making a run for the playoffs, and that will undoubtedly affect some teams at the trade deadline. So, with that, here’s who we’re placing our money on this week.

Cleveland Guardians (+1.5) over Baltimore Orioles

  • Best Odds: Bet365 at -165

The Cleveland Guardians have shown dominance not just in their series against the Baltimore Orioles but the rest of the American League. Kicking off the three-game series with a tight 3-2 win, Cleveland showed off their competitiveness, especially when considered underdogs in the matchup. Jose Ramirez’s go-ahead solo home run in the sixth inning was the biggest moment of the night, highlighting the team’s clutch performance.

For the upcoming game, the Guardians are set to start LHP Logan Allen, who, despite a 5.23 ERA, has managed an impressive 8-3 record. It just goes to show the offensive firepower of the Guardians. Cleveland’s recent performance as underdogs is noteworthy, with a 10-2 record on the run line in the past 12 games, including 8 outright wins. This trend shows that the Guardians have a knack for keeping games close, which we think makes it a smart bet to take them at +1.5.

On the other hand, the Orioles are in a bit of a slump, which is fortunate for everyone in the AL. Having lost their last four games and scoring only 4 runs in their past three, the Orioles need something to change. Although Baltimore’s LHP Cole Irvin has been solid at home with a 2.83 ERA, the Guardians’ underdog tenacity makes them a nice choice to cover the +1.5 spread. Even if Baltimore manages a win, Cleveland’s ability to keep the game within a run makes this a strong bet.

Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5 Runs

  • Best Odds: Bet365 at -115

We love totals, and the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds offers a great opportunity for those looking to bet on the under. Both teams come into this game with identical records and a shared struggle to produce consistently on offense. However, the real story lies in the pitching.

Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has been a standout with a 3.11 ERA and 85 strikeouts over 92.2 innings. That’s nothing to scoff at. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene has been equally impressive, sporting a 3.35 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 88.2 innings. Given how these pitchers are matching up, we’re feeling the under on this bet. We think runs will come at a premium, and given the bookmakers have set the bar at 8.5, we think the under is an easy bet.

Recent trends support this as well. Pittsburgh has seen the under hit in 8 of their last 9 divisional games, while Cincinnati is 7-3 to the under following a win in their last 10 games. With both teams struggling offensively and facing strong pitching, an under 8.5 bet looks solid.

Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals on the Moneyline

  • Best Odds: DraftKings at -135

The Atlanta Braves against the St. Louis Cardinals is set to be a competitive game, but the Braves have just a slight edge that makes them a smart bet on the moneyline. Despite the Cardinals’ recent hot streak and their win against the Braves in the series opener, the pitching matchup for the next game we believe tilts this in Atlanta’s favor.

Reynaldo Lopez is expected to start for the Braves, bringing a season-long consistency where he has only allowed more than three earned runs once, and even then, that’s been a while. His recent outings include two consecutive scoreless outings, showcasing his ability to shut down batters. To take it up a notch, Atlanta’s bullpen boasts the third-lowest ERA in baseball, providing a reliable backup if needed. Again, we stress, if needed. Lopez tends to go deep in games.

On the flip side, the Cardinals will be starting Kyle Gibson, who, while having a strong season overall, missed his last start due to back tightness. This adds an element of uncertainty to his performance as we’re not sure how deep into the game he’ll go. He might do great, but if Atlanta can get to the bullpen, they’ll be in good shape. 

Betting on the Braves to win outright takes advantage of this pitching matchup and the minor uncertainties surrounding Gibson’s health. The Braves’ ability to bounce back and secure a win after a close loss makes this one of the better bets in the market.

Place Your Bets with a Bonus!

There are plenty of good bets in the MLB this week, but these are three that stood out to us. However, before you go and fill up that bet slip, you might want to take advantage of the bonuses these sportsbooks are offering this week. DraftKings, BetMGM, and Bet365 all offer a massive assortment of betting options and their bonuses are equally as solid. Be sure to take advantage of them before placing your bets.

Bet365 Sportsbook
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BetMGM Sportsbook
First Bet Offer $1500Excludes NY, NC, NV and PR | Promo Code: EWBET1 Rated 4.9 Out Of 5.0 Stars
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DraftKings Sportsbook
Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets InstantlyNew Customers In All Other States Rated 4.9 Out Of 5.0 Stars
21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler

Matt Brown


Head of Sports Betting and DFS

Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.