After a strong trend of bettors winning when playing under the point total and betting on underdogs, both the side and total bets split 7-7 among the 14 games played in Week 7 of NFL action.
Under bettors still have a significant advantage for the 2022 season and are now 62-46 after seven weeks of games. NFL underdogs continue to level off after a hot start, meaning the 2022 season total stands at 59-46-2 as we near the halfway point.
Week 7’s best bets went 2-2 for the second straight week, bringing our record this season to 12-12. Washington won outright as a 5.5-point underdog against Green Bay thanks to the return of Taylor Heinicke.
The under cashed for us in the Browns’ loss to Baltimore. We lost on the Jaguars as three-point home favorites and the Colts as small road underdogs to Tennessee.
Week 8 brings us another opportunity to put some money in our pockets, and we look to take advantage with another round of best bets. Let’s check out 3 best bets for the Week 8 Sunday slate of NFL games.
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On First Wager
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks: UNDER 44.5
This number feels odd given that these two teams have a combined scoring average of over 47.5 points per game. Both teams are in the top eight in the NFL in rushing yards and yards per rush and in the bottom three NFL teams in terms of rushing yards allowed.
With both offenses centering around their ground attack, this has the feeling of a game where the two teams drive down the field at will, but do not cash in and score touchdowns to go over this number. New York is 22nd in red zone TD percentage in 2022, and Seattle is 31st.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 41
Against a top-tier defense in Tampa Bay, Carolina had their best game of the season in Week 7 by accumulating 343 yards of total offense. This included 27 rushes for 173 yards as a team and a 17-yard rushing touchdown from Chuba Hubbard. Carolina’s defense stifled Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense, allowing just three points.
Atlanta just gave up 35 points and nearly 500 yards passing to Cincinnati, a far cry from the offense they’ll face in Week 8. The Panthers and Falcons are 28th and 30th in passing yards, respectively, and neither should pose a scoring threat to the other through the air. We will play another under in a game where the clock will be rolling and scoring chances will be spread out.
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys -9.5
The Bears ran the ball 45 times against New England in Week 7 on their way to a massive outright win as double-digit underdogs. The Patriots were able to pressure Justin Fields, but Chicago converted third down conversions one after another to keep New England’s defense on the field.
Dallas leads the NFL in sacks, and Chicago has been sacked more times than any other team in the 2022 season. Fields and company will not be able to replicate their 11-for-18 performance on third downs, and Dallas will distance themselves from a Bears team that won’t fare as well as a large road underdog this week.
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