We struggled to a 1-2 mark yesterday, but we’re still 10-7 over our last 17 overall. Jameson Taillon just barely stayed under his strikeout prop to give us are only win on the card. Needless to say, we were thrilled when David Ross decided to take him out of the game.
Bailer Ober came up just half a strikeout shy of cashing our over ticket. As for Mitch Keller, he didn’t even come close to winning our prop, as the Guardians lit him up for 8 runs. Let’s bounce back with 2 MLB PrizePicks props for Wednesday, July 19.
Graham Ashcraft OVER 4.5 Strikeouts
I get that this play is scary because Ashcraft isn’t known as a strikeout pitcher. Sure, he may not have overpowering stuff, but he’s facing San Fran tonight. The Giants have one of the worst K-rates in all of baseball.
Five of San Francisco’s everyday players strike out 24% of the time or higher. That means that Ashcraft has a very good chance of racking up at least 5 strikeouts in this one. Heck, Luke Weaver accumulated 6 Ks last night in only 2.2 innings of work against this Giants lineup.
Even though Ashcraft’s K-rate is low this year, this is a favorable matchup for him. We like that his cutter moves a ton and tops out at 96 MPH. Take the Over!
Luis Castillo UNDER 8 Strikeouts
Here’s another scary prop to jump on, even though you may have to talk yourself into it. Castillo is a dominant right-hander with a high strikeout rate. That being said, our projections say that this number should be 6.5 instead of 8. That’s way too much value to pass up.
Castillo has stayed under 7.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 19 starts this season. Sure, the Twins do have a lot of strikeout guys in their lineup, but we think the oddsmakers have over-adjusted for that with this number.
So far in 2023, Castillo has averaged 6.42 strikeouts per start. Look for him to fan 6 or 7 Twins tonight, but that’ll still cash our Under ticket! Good luck with all of your MLB action!