Valkyries vs Dream Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 6 Picks, Odds and Best Bet

The Golden State Valkyries are one win from the first championship in franchise history, and the only team standing in the way is a Dream squad that has managed just 62 and 55 points in the last two games.

Quick take:

• Pick: Valkyries +4.5
• Why: Golden State has turned this series into a half-court grind that favors the underdog, and every game since Game 3 has been decided by single digits.
• The number to watch: 29.2% – Atlanta’s field goal percentage in Game 5, a season low

Game 6 of the WNBA Finals tips off Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, with the Valkyries leading the series 3-2 and a title on the line.

Golden State (32-12) went 15-7 on the road in the regular season, while Atlanta (30-14) was 15-7 at home and enters on a five-game winning streak in the standings. After the Dream took a 2-1 lead with a 97-71 blowout in Game 3, the Valkyries answered with a 67-62 win in Game 4 and a 64-55 win in Game 5 to flip the series. The league had to sort out the date and venue for this game over several days, and the early tip is a body-clock challenge for a West Coast team.

Dream Are Favored, But The Market Is Leaning On Home Court

The Dream are laid -4.5 points at home with the total set at 147.5, according to the latest lines. The moneyline sits around Dream -175 and Valkyries +145, depending on the book. That price asks bettors to believe Atlanta’s Game 2 and Game 3 form, when the Dream scored 79 and 97, is more representative than the last two games, when they managed 62 and 55. A closeout game also tends to pull the underdog’s price toward the favorite, so the +4.5 on a team that is up in the series is the more interesting side of this number.

Recent Form

Both teams have played a series full of low-scoring, physical games, and the data below shows how each side has been trending heading into the potential clincher.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Kiah Stokes And The Valkyries Defense Have Changed The Series

Angel Reese was the best player on the floor through the first three games, averaging 25.5 points and 14 rebounds in the two Dream wins, including a 30-point, 16-rebound night in Game 2. Then Golden State put Kiah Stokes on the interior and Reese has scored 8 and 7 points in the last two games, shooting 2-of-12 in Game 4 and 2-of-8 in Game 5, with six turnovers in the first of those.

Stokes is the reason. She has recorded at least three blocks in six straight games, matching Lisa Leslie’s postseason record from 2003, and she has 14 blocks in the series, a Finals record. In Game 5 she led Golden State with 13 points and eight rebounds.

Atlanta shot a season-low 29.2% from the field in Game 5, and in Game 4 the Dream shot 33.3% while turning the ball over 18 times.

The Valkyries are not scoring much either. They shot 36% in Game 4 and 39% in Game 5, and they have not made more than 25% of their threes in either of the last two games. But they cleaned up the turnovers that fueled Atlanta early, committing nine in Game 4 and seven in Game 5 after coughing it up 36 times combined in Games 2 and 3.

Veronica Burton has been the steady piece in the backcourt, with 13 points and eight rebounds in Game 5 and five assists in Game 4. Gabby Williams led the Valkyries with 17 in Game 4 and scored 26 in the Game 1 win. Tiffany Hayes added 13 points in Game 4 and 12 in Game 5.

The Dream still have weapons. Rhyne Howard scored 19 in Game 4 and 20 in Game 5, Jordin Canada added 12 in Game 5, and Allisha Gray has played through a hand injury since the semifinals. The problem is the supporting cast is not giving Reese enough room to work when Stokes is camped in the paint, and the Dream are shooting poorly from the perimeter as a team.

Scoring is the other thing to know. This series is averaging about 138.5 points per game, and that drops sharply once you remove the 168-point outlier in Game 3. The Valkyries went 3-0 against Atlanta in the regular season, with wins of 77-66, 78-75 and 88-83, and every one of those was closer than the margin suggests for an underdog in this spot. If you want to dig into pricing beyond this game, our live sports betting odds page is a good place to compare lines.

Prediction and Best Bet

Atlanta will have the crowd and the desperation, and a Reese bounce-back is the biggest risk to this pick. But Golden State has held her under control for two straight games, and the Dream have not found a second reliable scorer behind Howard. Expect another ugly, low-possession game where a few late plays decide the winner, which is exactly the type of game where +4.5 points is valuable. The Valkyries are good enough to win outright and close this out, but the safest way to play it is to take the points.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Valkyries 66, Dream 63
2. Best Bet: Valkyries +4.5

Golden State has the defense, the rebounding edge and a series lead, and in a grinding Finals game the points are worth more than the home-court premium. Always gamble responsibly.