UFC 301 Betting Guide: Our 3 Best Bets for Pantoja vs. Erceg

UFC 301 Our 3 Best Bets for Pantoja vs. Erceg

Ready to get in on all the exciting action with UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4? We can help! Check out our 3 best bets for Pantoja vs. Erceg right here. Good luck!

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Main Event Play: Alexandre Pantoja (-185 at BetMGM)

Pantoja is on a 5-fight win streak and has successfully defended his title against Brandon Royval in his last fight. He has yet to be finished in his 30-fight professional career and that streak will continue here against Erceg.

However, Erceg has had an impressive start to his fighting career and currently sits at 21-1-0 overall. That said, he has only fought 3 opponents since entering the UFC who have a combined 6-8-1 record over their last 5 fights.

There are levels to this UFC game and we do not believe that Erceg is ready for the level that Pantoja brings to the table. Outside of underestimating Erceg, we expect Pantoja to have his way in this fight and coast to another successful title defense.

Main Card Top Finish Play: Michel Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ (-120 Fanduel)

Pereira is on a 7-game win streak and has KO/TKO’d his opponent in 11 of his 30 career victories. His most recent one came over Andre Petroski last October where he finished him in the 1st minute of the fight.

He followed that up with a 1st-minute finish by submission over Michal Oleksiejczuk this past March. Now he is facing Ihor Potieria, who has shown he is susceptible to being knocked out.

4 of his 5 career losses have come via KO/TKO. Moreso, he is just 2-3 in his last 5 fights with all 3 losses coming via KO/TKO. Pereira is going to be looking for the bonus in this one and try to put Potieria out early in this one.


Main Card Top Prop Play: Craig/Borralho to start 3rd Round (-135 DraftKings)

2 of Craig’s last 4 fights have made it into the 3rd round. For Borralho, he has seen the 3rd round in 7 of his last 9 fights, including 4 of his last 5. Craig is a heavy underdog here which implies that Borralho will dictate how this fight goes and that has been slow and methodical over his recent bouts.

We expect that type of pace to continue for him here and would not be shocked to see this one go to decision. On the chance that this thing is finished in the 3rd, we are happy to lay the extra juice on the fight only going past 2 rounds.


Other Leans for All Remaining Fights

Jonathan Martinez (-140)

Anthony Smith (+425)

Joanderson Brito (-180)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310)

Elves Brener (+205)

William Goomis (+105)

Drakkar Klose (-185)

Mauricio Ruffy (-225)

Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)

Ismael Bonfim (-535)

Kevin Borjas (+100)

Bill Christy

Sports Betting Contributor

Bill is a high-volume sports bettor who runs his own sports investing business. He has an uncanny ability to find tons of mathematical edges on each day’s sports betting card. Bill covers all sports but his bread and butter is UFC, Golf, and College Hoops. Find him on X at @LarrysLocks2