Preseason basketball usually flies under the radar, but prediction markets are paying close attention to Monday night’s matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks. The two sides meet at State Farm Arena on October 12, and even though it’s an exhibition game with zero regular-season stakes, bettors have made their read on this one clear.
What the Markets Are Saying
On Polymarket, the Hawks are sitting at 68 cents on the dollar to win this game, implying a 68% probability, while the Thunder price out at 32 cents. That’s a notable gap for a preseason tilt, and it tracks with how traditional NBA odds markets are shaping this game as well. Liquidity on the contract has been solid, with volume figures in the sports feed ranging from roughly $63,000 up to north of $230,000 across different tiers, suggesting real money — not just casual action — is behind the Atlanta price.
Public betting splits tell a different story on the surface: ticket percentages are close to even, roughly 50/50. But when the money and the price both lean one direction while the ticket count stays balanced, it usually means sharper, bigger bets are pushing the line toward Atlanta rather than the general betting public driving it.
Why Oklahoma City Is the Underdog Here
It’s a strange sight on paper. The Thunder were the best team in the Western Conference a season ago and enter this preseason as the presumptive favorites once the real games start on October 20 at San Antonio. Yet in this specific exhibition window, Oklahoma City is banged up and cold. The Thunder have dropped both of their preseason outings so far, falling 110-116 to New Orleans on October 6 and 126-128 to Milwaukee the very next night.
The injury report explains a lot of that. Thomas Sorber, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein have all carried day-to-day tags through this stretch of the preseason schedule, and for Monday’s specific matchup, the absences pile up further: Jalen Williams is questionable with a hamstring issue, Ajay Mitchell is out with a leg injury, and Sorber is also ruled out with a knee problem for this one. That’s a meaningful chunk of Oklahoma City’s rotation depth missing or limited, even if the franchise’s top-line star is expected to suit up.
Atlanta, by contrast, is dealing with a single notable absence in center Jock Landale, who is out with an ankle issue. A largely healthy roster going up against a thinned-out opponent is exactly the kind of setup that tends to move a market like this one, regardless of which team is considered the better overall roster entering the real season.
The Name to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is not listed among Oklahoma City’s absences for this one, and his presence alone keeps the Thunder from being a complete afterthought in this market. The reigning MVP-caliber guard has been the engine behind Oklahoma City’s rise to the top of the West, and even in a shorthanded preseason lineup, his scoring gravity and shot creation give the Thunder a path to cover regardless of what the win-probability number says. Markets price teams, not just stars, which is part of why Atlanta still holds a clear edge here — but anyone fading the Thunder entirely because of the depth chart is ignoring the one player capable of erasing a mediocre supporting cast on a given night.
This is also just the second meeting in a stretch that has Oklahoma City extremely busy: after Atlanta, the Thunder host Indiana on October 13 and then travel to Houston on October 15. That kind of condensed preseason workload is often exactly when head coaches start resting healthy regulars and leaning on bench units, which only reinforces why the market sees this as a lean-Atlanta spot rather than a true measuring-stick game.
What It Means Heading Into Monday
Preseason outcomes don’t carry playoff weight, but prediction markets don’t really care about that distinction — they’re pricing the probability of what happens on the scoreboard that night, injuries and all. Right now, that math favors Atlanta at home behind a healthier roster, while Oklahoma City leans on its MVP-caliber engine and whatever depth it can field. Whether the final score backs up the 68-32 split or Oklahoma City finds a way to steal one on the road, Monday’s game adds one more data point to how the betting market views both franchises as they shift from exhibition play into the regular season grind.
