Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet
The Tampa Bay Lightning head to Raleigh tonight to face the Carolina Hurricanes in what is going to be a crucial late-season matchup.
With both teams holding firm onto a playoff spot, now they’re just fighting for playoff positioning. So, we expect an intense battle on the ice.
The Hurricanes with their 38-22-4 record are -125 favorites at home, while the Lightning and their 37-22-4 record come in as +105 underdogs with almost even odds.
With the puck drop set for 6:30 PM ET at PNC Arena, there is plenty of time for you to get your bets in on this game.
Betting Odds and Key Matchups
| Team | Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +1.5 -245 |
O 5.5 -122 |
+105 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | -1.5 +200 |
U 5.5 +102 |
-125 |
The Hurricanes enter this game as slight home favorites, but that doesn’t mean the Lightning haven’t had their number this season.
Tampa Bay leads the regular-season series 2-0, having won both previous matchups, 4-1 and 3-2. Despite the odds favoring Carolina, the Lightning’s recent dominance between these 2 foes makes this game an interesting betting opportunity. Both teams are beating some of the best teams in the NHL and have some of the best records in the Eastern Conference.
No matter how you look at it, we think this will be a close game.
Goaltending Battle
We think this game could come down to goaltending, and when you look at who is between the pipes for each team, it’s easy to see why.
Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the best in the league — possibly the world. He’s posting a 30-17-3 record with a .921 save percentage. Backup Jonas Johansson has struggled a bit, so we expect Vasilevskiy to get the nod in a conference showdown like this one.
For Carolina, Pyotr Kochetkov has carried most of the workload. He’s boasting a 23-11-3 record with a .904 SV%. Frederik Andersen has played in a limited role, but his solid .911 save percentage is good enough that he could step in if needed.
Tampa Bay has the edge in goal, and Vasilevskiy could be the difference-maker. These are both teams that will capitalize on mistakes so this could come down to which netminder makes the most, and Vasilevskiy doesn’t too often.
Lightning’s Offense vs. Hurricanes’ Defense
Tampa Bay has been one of the highest-scoring teams. They’re averaging 3.54 goals per game which puts them 2nd just behind the Capitals with their 3.61 GF/G.. Led by Nikita Kucherov and his 92 points over 28 goals and 64 assists and Brayden Point with his 32 goals, they’ve been tough to contain.
Carolina’s strength really lies in its defense and penalty kill which sits at 84.1%, but they’ll need to slow down a Lightning team that thrives on the power play. They currently sit at 26.1% on the power play which puts them 6th overall in the NHL. The Hurricanes, however, struggle on the power play themselves at 18.7%, which could hurt them in a tight game if these teams aren’t as disciplined.
Given the nature of these 2 NHL powerhouses, we think a few penalties could get racked up and special teams might dictate the outcome of this game.
Recent Form and Trends
| Lightning | Hurricanes | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-8-2 | Home | 25-7-1 |
| 14-14-2 | Road | 13-15-3 |
| 34-29 | Puck Line | 28-36 |
| 27-30-6 | O/U | 25-34-5 |
| L1 | Streak | W4 |
| 3.5 | Avg. Goals For | 3.2 |
| 2.7 | Avg. Goals Against | 2.7 |
| 2.8 | Avg. Winning Margin | 2.3 |
| 1.9 | Avg. Losing Margin | 2.3 |
| 6.2 | Avg. Total Goals | 5.9 |
Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning 3 of their last 5 and scoring at will. Their 7-3 record in their last 10 games shows they’re peaking at the right time. The teams they’re beating aren’t pushovers, either. They beat the top team in the NHL, the Washington Capitals, decisively 3-1.
Carolina is also in good form. They’ve won 4 straight and gone 6-4 in their last 10 games. However, they haven’t been as dominant offensively as Tampa as they’re averaging 3.19 goals per game — slightly less than the Lightning.
Prediction and Best Bet
This game is as close as it gets.
Carolina’s defense and home-ice advantage make them a tough opponent to beat, but Tampa Bay’s scoring depth, Vasilevskiy’s goaltending, and recent head-to-head success tilt the game in their favor.
- HelloRookie’s Prediction: Lightning 4, Hurricanes 2
- Best Bet: Lightning (+105) ML
Tampa Bay has dominated Carolina this season, and with Vasilevskiy on the net, we think they should complete the season sweep.
We’re taking the Lightning moneyline at plus odds and expect another close game.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
