Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty Prediction: Can the Storm Slow Down Stewart and the Liberty at Barclays Center?

Seattle arrives at Barclays Center losing nearly every week this summer, and the Liberty are exactly the kind of home favorite built to keep that streak alive.

Quick take:

• Pick: New York Liberty -9.5
• Why: New York’s size and depth on the glass overwhelm a Storm team that’s lost 21 of its last 24 games
• The number to watch: Seattle is 1-9 in its last 10 games

The Storm (6-25) have been one of the WNBA’s toughest watches all season, sitting eighth in the Western Conference and dropping five straight road games heading into this one. New York, meanwhile, keeps finding ways to win even with key rotation pieces sidelined — the Liberty (17-13) enter having taken 4 of their last 5, including a 94-92 escape against Phoenix behind a 27-point night from Sabrina Ionescu.

This is about as lopsided a matchup as the schedule offers this month. Seattle is 2-14 in true road games, and New York has been a completely different team at Barclays Center this year.

Why New York Opened as Such a Heavy Favorite

The Liberty opened as roughly 9.5-point favorites with a moneyline near -450, and the market isn’t wrong to lean this hard. New York has won 14 of the 24 games it’s been favored in this season, and Seattle has won just five of 28 games as an underdog. The Storm’s per-game numbers back up the gap — they’re averaging 82.5 points on 43.2 percent shooting while allowing 88 points a night, a negative margin that’s been the story of their season. New York, by contrast, is 12-4 when it scores more than 88 points, which is close to its baseline output most nights.

Recent Form

The gap in form is as stark as the gap in the standings — New York has been building rhythm while Seattle has been searching for any positive stretch.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Stewart and the Frontcourt Advantage Decide This One

Breanna Stewart has been the engine for New York all season, averaging north of 21 points a game on efficient shooting, and she’s getting help in the paint from center Jonquel Jones, who’s chipping in nearly 15 points and 9 rebounds a night. That combination is a problem for a Seattle frontcourt already missing Ezi Magbegor, who is out with a facial injury, and dealing with Mackenzie Johannes as a game-time call with an ankle issue. Ionescu, even while working through a lingering back issue for stretches of the year, has still found her scoring rhythm lately, evidenced by that 27-point outburst last time out.

New York has also been sharper at home than on the road this season in terms of limiting points allowed, a sign the Liberty defense settles in with the Barclays crowd behind them.

Seattle has lost 21 of its last 24 games and is 1-9 over its last 10.

That kind of stretch doesn’t turn around against a team playing with this much home-floor confidence. Seattle’s shorthanded frontcourt simply doesn’t have an answer for Stewart and Jones working in tandem, and New York’s depth advantage should show up early and stay the rest of the night.

Bettors looking for value elsewhere might want to check today’s live NBA odds for other same-day angles, though this game stands on its own as one of the more predictable outcomes on the WNBA slate.

Prediction and Best Bet

New York’s size, depth, and home comfort should be enough to cover comfortably against a Seattle team that’s simply overmatched on both ends. Expect the Liberty to control the boards early and pull away in the second half.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Liberty 89, Seattle Storm 74
2. Best Bet: New York Liberty -9.5

The Storm’s road struggles and thin frontcourt make this a tough spot to trust them, and the Liberty’s recent form suggests they cover with room to spare.