Seattle Storm vs New York Liberty Prediction: Can the Storm Slow Down Breanna Stewart in the Rematch?

The Liberty have used 13 different starting lineups this season, and they’re still about to bury the league’s worst team for the second time in three days.

Quick take:

• Pick: New York Liberty -9.5
• Why: Seattle just lost by 12 to this same team Monday and has dropped 8 of its last 10
• The number to watch: Breanna Stewart is averaging 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds since the calendar flipped to July

New York and Seattle are running it back at Barclays Center just two nights after the Liberty took Monday’s meeting 95-83 — their first double-digit win since July 3. That’s the kind of detail that matters when a shorthanded team finally clicks: New York has battled injuries to Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally all year, with that quartet sharing the floor together in just six games total.

Sabally hasn’t played since June 23 due to concussion protocol, and starting forward Leonie Fiebich remains out with a left foot issue that has lingered for weeks. The Liberty have leaned on 13 different starting lineups this season trying to navigate around it all — a number that would sink most rosters, but New York’s front office built enough depth in the offseason to absorb it. It’s part of why a team that won the 2024 title has had to fight for consistency, and also why Wednesday’s rematch is a real measuring stick for how far they’ve come since the injuries piled up.

Seattle, meanwhile, is buried at the bottom of the Western Conference and has nothing left to play for beyond pride. The Storm have lost 8 of their last 10 games, and Monday’s loss dropped them further into last place in the West. Seattle’s lone bright spot against New York this season came back on June 25, when the Storm actually won at home, 99-88 — proof this matchup isn’t automatic, even with the current form gap. But that was six weeks and a very different Liberty rotation ago.

Why the Number Keeps Climbing

New York opened as a solid favorite here, and the market has only leaned further into it as the week has gone on — the Liberty are now sitting at -9.5 with the total set at 181.5. You can track how that line moves throughout the day on live betting odds, but given how badly outmatched Seattle has looked defensively of late, there’s a real argument the number could’ve been higher; New York’s role players stepped up in a big way in the first meeting, which is exactly the kind of depth advantage that shows up again in a quick turnaround game like this.

Recent Form

The gap between these two teams’ trajectories has been obvious for weeks, and the head-to-head only reinforces it.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Stewart Is Doing Too Much for Seattle to Contain

Breanna Stewart has been the engine keeping New York afloat through all the injury chaos, and she’s been especially locked in of late — she’s averaging north of 19 points and nearly 9 rebounds a night since the start of July, carrying a Liberty frontcourt that’s had to adjust its rotation on the fly almost every game. Jonquel Jones has been the steady complement, shooting better than 50% from the floor and providing exactly the kind of interior scoring punch that Seattle’s defense has struggled to answer against anyone.

Seattle has lost 8 of its last 10 games and sits at the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

That kind of sustained losing stretch tends to show up most in the fourth quarter, when a shorthanded roster starts running out of answers. New York doesn’t need Sabally or a fully healthy Fiebich to win this one — Stewart and Jones alone have been enough to carry the offensive load against a Storm defense that’s been leaking points for weeks.

Seattle isn’t devoid of talent. Gabby Williams remains a versatile two-way piece who can guard multiple positions and create shots in transition, and she’ll need a big night just to keep this one respectable. But one player working overtime against a Liberty team clicking on both ends is a tough ask two nights after New York already solved this exact matchup.

Sabrina Ionescu’s health is worth watching too — when she’s been available and rolling, New York’s spacing opens up considerably, since she pulls a second defender away from the paint and lets Stewart and Jones operate one-on-one inside. Even in a limited role this season, Ionescu has shown flashes of the shot-making that makes the Liberty’s offense so difficult to game-plan for over a 40-minute stretch, let alone twice in the same week.

Seattle’s defense has been the bigger issue than its offense down the stretch. Over the last 10 games, the Storm have allowed opponents to shoot well and get to the free-throw line at a high rate, and that trend lines up poorly against a Liberty frontcourt built to punish exactly that kind of defensive slippage. New York doesn’t need a heroic shooting night to win this one comfortably — their size mismatch at forward and center does most of the work on its own.

Prediction and Best Bet

New York’s size advantage inside, its depth on the wing, and Seattle’s fatigue from being the league’s most beaten-down roster all point in the same direction. This has the makings of another comfortable Liberty win.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Liberty 92, Seattle Storm 76
2. Best Bet: New York Liberty -9.5

Back the Liberty to cover again — this is a mismatch that got fixed in-season, not one that’s turning around at Barclays Center.