Royals vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Kansas City’s Winning Streak Meets a Scuffling Max Scherzer

Kansas City has won eight straight and nine of its last ten, and it’s rolling into Rogers Centre with nothing to lose against a Toronto team that just watched its ace-turned-afterthought get shelled again.

Quick take:

• Pick: Kansas City Royals +1.5
• Why: The Royals are the hottest team in the American League right now and they’re getting a full run and a half against a Blue Jays team that just lost its last two of three.
• The number to watch: Royals pitchers have a 3.34 ERA over the last 10 games, nearly a full run better than Toronto’s 3.99 mark in the same span.

The Royals are 58-74 and buried in fifth place in the AL Central, 10.5 games back with basically no postseason path left. None of that matters this week. Kansas City has reeled off eight consecutive wins and a 9-1 mark over its last 10, outscoring opponents by a wide margin during the surge behind a lineup that suddenly can’t stop hitting.

Toronto, meanwhile, is scuffling in fourth place in the AL East at 64-68, 14 games behind Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are 5-5 over their last 10 and just dropped two of three to the Yankees, including a 3-8 loss in their most recent outing.

Why the Market Still Likes Toronto Anyway

Sportsbooks have Toronto as a modest home favorite despite the disparity in recent form, with FanDuel pricing the Blue Jays at -122 on the moneyline and Kansas City at +104. The run line has Toronto giving up a run and a half at +1.5 for the Royals (-205) versus -1.5 for the Blue Jays (+168), with the total sitting at 8.5. Bettors tracking the full slate can check live MLB odds for how the number moves closer to first pitch.

That gap between the moneyline and the underlying form says the market is still leaning heavily on Toronto’s home address and a reluctance to fully buy into a last-place team’s hot streak. But books have been slow to fully price in just how bad Max Scherzer has looked lately, and that’s where the value shows up on the run line.

Recent Form

The gap in trajectory between these two clubs right now is about as stark as it gets in late August.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Scherzer’s Struggles Meet a Suddenly Locked-In Royals Lineup

Max Scherzer takes the ball for Toronto sporting a 1-6 record and a bloated 7.40 ERA in 11 starts, with just 32 strikeouts over 45 innings. The 42-year-old gave up seven earned runs in only four innings in his last outing against Tampa Bay, and Toronto’s bullpen has had to bail him out or absorb the damage far too often this summer.

Kansas City counters with Seth Lugo, who isn’t dominant by any means at 5-7 with a 4.71 ERA, but he’s been a stabilizing presence for a Royals staff that has quietly turned things around. Bobby Witt Jr. remains the engine of this offense, hitting .287 with 16 home runs and 35 stolen bases, and he’s been doing damage against every type of pitching during the winning streak. Vinnie Pasquantino has provided pop in the middle of the order as well, and the Royals’ pitching staff has allowed just seven home runs over its last 10 games.

Kansas City’s staff has a 3.34 ERA over its last 10 games, while Scherzer alone is sitting on a 7.40 mark for the season.

Toronto isn’t without firepower. Kazuma Okamoto leads the club with 26 home runs, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer both provide thump in the middle of the lineup. But this Blue Jays team has been streaky all year, and facing a red-hot opponent with their most unreliable starter on the mound is a tough combination.

Andres Gimenez is day-to-day with a hamstring issue for Toronto, and Josh Smith remains on the 10-day injured list, thinning out the Blue Jays’ infield depth at exactly the wrong time. Kansas City has its own absences with Maikel Garcia on the 10-day IL and Jac Caglianone day-to-day, but neither has slowed the winning streak. Depth has actually been part of the story for Kansas City during the run — role players have stepped in and produced, which is often the difference between a team that fades in September and one that keeps stacking wins in meaningless games.

It’s also worth noting how differently these rotations are trending. Lugo has given the Royals length and stability all summer, eating innings even on nights when his stuff isn’t overpowering. Scherzer, by contrast, has looked every bit his age over the past month, and Toronto’s coaching staff has had to manage his workload carefully to avoid another blowup start. That contrast in reliability matters just as much as raw talent when two teams with nothing on the line are simply trying to finish the year on the right note.

Prediction and Best Bet

Toronto’s lineup gives it a puncher’s chance to salt away a series, but Kansas City’s pitching has been the best in baseball over the last two weeks, and Scherzer’s struggles make this a live spot for the Royals to steal a game at Rogers Centre.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Kansas City Royals 5, Toronto Blue Jays 4
2. Best Bet: Kansas City Royals +1.5

Ride the streak. Kansas City has been the best team in baseball for two weeks, and a shaky Scherzer start is exactly the kind of matchup that keeps hot teams rolling.