Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction: Boston Goes for the Sweep in Los Angeles

Boston has won the last four in a row, taken the first two games of this series behind Ceddanne Rafaela’s bat, and now sends Jake Bennett to the mound with a chance to complete a stunning sweep of the two-time defending World Series champions.

Quick take:

• Pick: Red Sox +134
• Why: Boston’s rotation matchup edge and red-hot lineup outweigh the Dodgers’ talent gap in a get-right spot
• The number to watch: Red Sox 21-4 in July, an .840 winning percentage that set a franchise record for a calendar month

The Red Sox (59-51) have been the best team in baseball for the last month, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Boston has won eight consecutive series dating back to the start of its 15-game winning streak in early July, and Saturday’s 3-2 win at Dodger Stadium — Rafaela’s two-homer game backing rookie Payton Tolle — pushed the club to a season-best eight games over .500.

The Dodgers (69-42) are still the NL West’s runaway leaders and one of the best rosters in the sport on paper, but they’ve dropped the first two games of this series and now face a lineup that has nothing to fear walking into Dodger Stadium.

Why the Market Still Trusts LA Despite the Skid

Books have installed the Dodgers as home favorites again for the finale, with LA sitting around -160 to -174 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line, per multiple books. The total sits at 9, reflecting two lineups capable of scoring in bunches even with the way both bullpens have trended.

That gap between the moneyline price and the way this series has actually played out is the value conversation here. Books are pricing in the Dodgers’ name value and season-long track record — not necessarily the version of this team that’s lost back-to-back games at home to a division-shuffling opponent.

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Both clubs enter Sunday night in very different emotional places despite similar overall talent on the field.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

The Pitching Matchup Tilts Toward Boston

Jake Bennett takes the ball for Boston at 6-4 with a 2.74 ERA, a number that’s held up all season and looks even better set against Emmet Sheehan’s 4-7 record and 4.95 ERA for LA. Sheehan has been solid in stretches but hittable overall, and a Red Sox lineup that’s found its groove — Rafaela alone went deep in each of his first two at-bats Saturday — is exactly the kind of opponent that can turn a shaky start into a crooked number early.

Shohei Ohtani remains the swing factor for the Dodgers no matter who’s on the mound. He’s been held out of the lineup with left knee soreness that’s lingered since June, and while he’s still mashing when he plays — a .263/.344/.526 line with 10 homers in his last 36 games — the injury has been enough for the Dodgers to manage his workload carefully, and any hint he’s limited Sunday removes their best individual counterpunch to Boston’s momentum.

Boston has won six of its last seven games and is 5-1 on this seven-game California road trip.

That’s not a hot streak so much as a full organizational identity shift since the calendar flipped to July. Andruw Monasterio’s go-ahead double in the eighth Saturday — followed by Connor Wong’s productive groundout — is the kind of situational execution that’s defined this run: Boston isn’t just out-slugging teams, it’s beating them in the moments that decide close games.

The Dodgers, for their part, still have the deeper roster and the better record. But a team that’s lost the first two of a series at home, with its two-way superstar banged up, facing a red-hot opponent’s best current arm matchup, is not a lock — and the market’s still treating LA like the same team that ran away with the division in June.

Los Angeles isn’t a team in crisis by any stretch — a 69-42 record with a healthy cushion in the NL West speaks for itself, and manager Dave Roberts has options up and down a lineup that features Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith even on nights Ohtani needs a breather. But margin for error shrinks fast against a club playing with Boston’s current confidence, and letting the Red Sox walk out of Chavez Ravine with a series sweep would be an uncomfortable signal heading into August.

Prediction and Best Bet

Boston completes the sweep. Bennett’s command edge over Sheehan, combined with a Red Sox offense that’s clicking on all cylinders, is enough to get this one done even on the road against a team of the Dodgers’ caliber.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Red Sox 5, Dodgers 3
2. Best Bet: Red Sox on the moneyline

Fade the Dodgers’ name value one more time — the Red Sox have earned the right to be favored in this spot, even if the odds don’t say so yet.