Week 5 of the NFL season concludes with a nice Raiders at Chiefs matchup! Both teams scored victories last week and will be looking to build on that positive momentum. Can the Raiders pull off the big upset on the road?
Need some extra action on tonight’s AFC West showdown between Las Vegas and Kansas City? You’ve come to the right place! Here are our 4 top player prop bets for Monday Night Football. All lines can be found at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Patrick Mahomes OVER 279.5 Passing Yards
This play is super square but sometimes the most obvious picks are the best ones. Mahomes has only gone over this passing yardage once this season, which gives us a little bit of hesitation. However, the former Texas Tech star has obliterated the Raiders in his career by averaging 318 passing yards per game against them through eight games.
This matchup clearly favors Mahomes to have a big game. Las Vegas struggles mightily against the pass, as they rank 29th in EPA in that department. The Raiders also allow 7.5 yards per pass (27th) and 253.8 passing yards per game (24th). To put it plainly, we think Mahomes picks this below-average Raiders secondary apart tonight.
Josh Jacobs OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards
It’s hard betting on a large underdog’s running back to do major damage, simply because the game script may favor the pass. That being said, this number is simply too low according to our projection. Jacobs has gone Over this total in three out of four games so far this season.
The former Alabama star has also averaged 62.5 rushing yards per game against Kansas City during his career through 6 games against them. If Las Vegas wants to stay in this game, they’ll have to be able to run the ball and keep Mahomes and his dynamic offense off the field.
We shouldn’t have to worry about Jacobs sharing too many carries, as he toted the rock 28 times last week and was on the field for 89% of the snaps against Denver. Las Vegas has a decent offensive line and the running game has been averaging 5 yards per rush. Jacobs has gone over this total in 29 of 47 career games!
Juju Smith-Schuster OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Juju is slowly becoming a larger part of this Chiefs’ offense. Mahomes has targeted Smith-Schuster 27 times through 4 games. We are betting that Smith-Schuster gets 8-10 targets in this game against a suspect Las Vegas secondary.
The former USC Trojan has averaged 85.5 receiving yards against the Raiders in his career. Even though it’s a small sample size of only 2 games, it still favors the Over in this spot. Our numbers have Smith-Schuster finishing with around 65-75 receiving yards so we’ll trust our projection and ride the Over!
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
With so much attention on Travis Kelce and the aforementioned Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling should be able to find some open spots in the Raiders’ defense. He’s gone over this yardage total in three out of four games this season. The former NC State standout has been on the field anywhere from 69% to 79% of the snaps, so he’ll see plenty of playing time.
Valdes-Scantling has only played against the Raiders once in his career, but he lit them up for 133 receiving yards. The 6-4, 206-pounder has plenty of speed so he could eclipse this low yardage total with only 1 or 2 long receptions. Let’s ride the Over and cheer for lots of yardage tonight from both teams!