Projected Odds for Most MLB Wins in 2025: Breaking Down the Top Contenders

With the 2025 MLB season just weeks away, betting odds are already set for the starting pitcher expected to lead the league in wins. While we agree that wins aren’t always the best measure of a pitcher’s dominance, they still carry a third of the weight in Cy Young discussions and team success as they’re more of a combination of how well a pitcher keeps the runs down and how the team can rack up some runs.

Based on early odds, these 5 pitchers stand out as the favorites heading into the 2025 MLB season. 

Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies

• Odds for Most Wins: +1000

Leading off our list is no surprise. Zack Wheeler enters 2025 tied for the best odds to lead MLB in wins.

His 2024 campaign was nothing less than impressive as he finished with a 16-7 record, a 2.57 ERA, 224 strikeouts, and a 0.96 WHIP over 200 innings. He was tied for 3rd in wins and strikeouts while posting a top-3 ERA.

The biggest draw for Wheeler is that he has been one of the most consistent arms in baseball. On top of that, Pitching for a strong Phillies team gives him a great chance to rack up plenty of wins.

If he can stay healthy and replicate his elite command heading into this season, a 20-win season isn’t out of reach.

Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers

• Odds for Most Wins: +1000

Tarik Skubal had a breakout in 2024. Tying for the MLB lead with 18 wins, Skubal notched the AL Triple Crown and the AL Cy Young. 

His 2.39 ERA ranked second in the MLB just behind Sale, while his 228 strikeouts were first in the league. He also posted a stellar 0.92 WHIP across a whopping 192 innings.

The Tigers may not be an offensive powerhouse, yet, but Skubal proved last year that he can dominate hitters and keep runners off of the bags.

If Detroit can provide him with solid run support, he has a strong chance to lead MLB in wins again and possibly be a back-to-back Triple Crown winner.

Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves

• Odds for Most Wins: +1400

Chris Sale turned back the clock in 2024 as he finished with an impressive 18-3 record, a 2.38 ERA (best in MLB), 225 strikeouts (2nd), and a 1.01 WHIP over 177.2 innings. This was good enough to get him the NL Triple Crown and NL Cy Young as well. His resurgence back to his old ways with Atlanta helped them remain one of the league’s best teams.

The Braves are a powerhouse offensively, which bodes well for Sale’s win potential in 2025.

At 35 years old he’s one of the older players in the league, but If he can avoid injuries, his combination of elite stuff and strong team support makes him an excellent bet to lead the league in wins yet again.

Paul Skenes – Pittsburgh Pirates

• Odds for Most Wins: +1400

As a rookie phenom, Paul Skenes is the youngest pitcher in this group, and his odds of +1400 may surprise some people.

The 22-year-old was dominant in his rookie campaign, going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts in just 133 innings. His 0.95 WHIP shows how effective he was at keeping runners off base. He was third in Cy Young voting but still able to secure the NL Rookie of the Year.

The biggest concern we see for Skenes is the workload. The Pirates may be cautious with his innings which might limit his ability to reach 18-20 wins. However, if Pittsburgh’s offense steps up and he gets a full season of quality starts, he has the talent to make a serious run at the wins leader title. It’s surprising to say this, but he’s still a developing pitcher.

Dylan Cease – San Diego Padres

• Odds for Most Wins: +1500

Dylan Cease rounds out the top 5 with 14 wins (14-11 record), a 3.47 ERA, 224 strikeouts (tied for 3rd), and a 1.07 WHIP in the 2024 season.

His numbers were strong, but his win total suffered due to some inconsistencies and a lack of run support. That could change as the Padres have added Jason Heyward and Connor Joe to the lineup which would only add a boost to Cease’s wins.

Cease has the strikeout ability to be an absolute dominant force, but his ERA and WHIP makes it look as if he needs to sharpen his command.

If he can improve his efficiency and get more help from the Padres’ lineup, which we think he could, he has the potential to reach the 18-20 win mark.

Who Will Have the Most Wins in the 2025 MLB Season?

Skubal and Sale led the league in wins last season and we don’t see them slowing down in 2025. This makes them the safest bets of the group. Wheeler’s consistency and team support put him right in the mix. Skenes undoubtedly has the talent to dominate on the mound but may be limited by innings as he’s still developing. Cease is still a contender in the mix but needs to refine his command to maximize his win potential.

There’s still some time for some off season moves which could affect these odds. Keep an eye out for who is being added to the lineups of these teams and follow the odds closely.

With the 2025 season approaching, these 5 pitchers will be ones to watch as they chase the wins crown.