Pistons vs. Knicks Prediction Market: Why Undefeated Detroit Is Still the Underdog at MSG

The NBA season is only three games old, and tonight’s matchup at Madison Square Garden already looks upside down. The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 3-0, while the defending champion New York Knicks are 0-3. Yet prediction markets still make the Knicks the favorites when the teams tip off at 8:00 PM ET.

What the Prediction Markets Are Saying

Traders on prediction markets are pricing the Knicks at about 60.5% to win and the Pistons at about 39.5%, with roughly $279,000 traded in the last 24 hours. Put simply, the crowd thinks New York wins about six times out of ten despite its rough opening week. The spread market tells a similar story, with the Knicks laying 3.5 points and priced at 53.5% to cover.

Sportsbooks are in the same neighborhood. The Knicks are listed at -3.5 on the spread, with a moneyline around -155 for New York and +130 for Detroit, and a total near 218.5. The spread briefly stretched to 4.5 before settling back at 3.5, and the total ticked up from 218.5 to 219.5 at one point. ESPN’s matchup predictor lands close to the markets too, giving the Knicks a 61.4% chance. If you want to see how these numbers compare across books, the live NBA odds page is a good place to start.

Detroit’s Perfect Start

The Pistons have done everything right so far. They beat Boston 121-113 at home, then went on the road and won 128-111 at Miami and 106-93 at Philadelphia. They are 3-0 against the spread as well, which puts them at the top of the East early. Philadelphia was missing Joel Embiid in that last game, so it is fair to wonder how much that win should count.

The numbers behind the record are strong on both ends. Detroit averages 118.3 points per game on 47% shooting, and it allows just 105.7 points, the fifth-fewest in the league, while opponents shoot around 41%. Cade Cunningham is the engine, putting up 21.3 points and 8.0 assists per game through three outings.

This is Detroit’s third straight road game, and the injury report matters. Center Jalen Duren is out with a right hamstring strain and is expected to miss at least two weeks. Ausar Thompson (right ankle sprain) and Isaiah Joe (right hip contusion) are both questionable. Paul Reed, who averages 8.3 rebounds, has been the one stepping into the center spot while Duren is sidelined.

Why the Knicks Are Still Favored

New York’s record looks ugly, but the market is clearly betting on a team that is better than its first week suggests, and the Garden crowd will not hurt. The Knicks lost by six at home to Philadelphia, by four at Boston, and by nine at home to Orlando. Two of those were close games, and the Knicks have started the same five every night, which usually points to a team that should settle in.

The real problem has been scoring. New York has put up 100, 103 and 102 points, a 101.7 average that ranks last in the league after three games, while shooting about 41%. Mikal Bridges is 0-for-10 from three-point range this season, and the team went 9-of-38 from deep against Orlando. The defense has been fine, allowing 108.0 points per game, so this looks more like a shooting slump than a collapse.

Jalen Brunson has carried the load, averaging 22.7 points after scoring 21, 19 and 28. He has taken 64 of the Knicks’ 267 shots, but he is shooting just 4-of-15 from three and went 6-of-19 and 7-of-17 in two of the games. That is well below the 26.0 points a night he averaged last season, and his points prop for tonight was set at Under 25.5. Karl-Anthony Towns is grabbing 12.0 rebounds per game, and Jose Alvarado is out with a left ankle sprain.

What to Watch Tonight

The biggest question is whether the Knicks’ cold shooting finally turns around against a Detroit defense that has been stingy. All three New York games have finished under 218.5 total points (206, 210 and 213), so the low-scoring pattern is worth noting if you are following the total. On the other side, Detroit has to prove its hot start holds up away from home without Duren, in a loud building against a team that badly needs a win.

Markets are not predictions carved in stone. They are a snapshot of what thousands of people believe at a given moment, and they move with injury news and late money. If you are new to reading these numbers, our betting calculator can help you turn odds into implied probabilities, which is exactly what a prediction market price is. Whatever you do, keep it fun and play responsibly.