The Colonial presents a unique challenge to bettors as past winners include accurate ball strikers like Kevin Kisner and Kevin Na, but also includes a runner-up finish from both Finau (2019) and Koepka (2018).
Before we jump into our picks for this tournament, let’s take a minute to talk about the course. A par 70 course that plays at 7,200 yards, the Colonial is far from one of the longer courses on the tour schedule. Furthermore, it’s smaller greens tend to reduce the emphasis on putting.
Most experts prefer some combination of overall ball striking and strokes gained around the green when breaking down the field for this tournament. I would argue that strokes gained on approach shots is clearly a strong indicator of success on this course.
In fact, if you look at the names currently in the top 20 in SG: Approach Shots, it’s a list of players with past success on this course including Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Russell Knox, Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Na, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, and Harris English.
With that being said, this tournament certainly has a different feel to it than any other year. While it’s far from having a Major feel, viewership could certainly be that high, the top groups are absolutely made for TV, and coming off a three-month hiatus should mean all bets are off.
Rory McIlroy
DraftKings Salary: $11,800
Rahm is clearly the favorite favorite bet for this week. He is in great form and has been gushing about how much he loves this course all week. That being said, when I look at these two golfer’s games, I’m taking McIlroy here every single time. He’s #1 in the field in SG: approach shots, is top 10 in SG: around the green, and has six straight top 5 finishes including a win at the HSBC. What has Rahm won this year?
Justin Thomas
DraftKings Salary: $10,600
JT was lights out prior to the Corona hiatus with 5 top 6 finishes in 9 starts, scoring over 100 DraftKings points in each of those starts. Given his form and how popular we expect Rory and Rahm to be this week, JT may give you just as good of a shot at a win at a slight discount. Remember that stat I pointed out in the intro, SG: Approach to the green… JT is currently ranked 8th overall and 5th in this field.
Webb Simpson
DraftKings Salary: $9,800
Simpson will be criminally underowned this week, simply because his name doesn’t carry the same weight as the other golfers at the top of this slate. Simpson was one of the hottest golfers on the planet prior COVID, with 5 top 3 finishes in his last 9 starts. His game is built for this course, and he has the track record to prove it with top 5 finishes in both 2016 and 2017.
Tony Finau
DraftKings Salary: $8,700
Why does this course favor Finau? Becuase he has gotten so good with both SG: approach shots and SG: around the green. Small greens will always favor Finau, because it means he has the putter in his hand less. Finished solo-second here last year including an opening round 64.
Jason Day
DraftKings Salary: $8,300
When his back is right he is as good as it gets. The problem obviously is that the back hasn’t been right for years. He says it feels great, and the warm weather in Texas should help, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he withdrew once again in his last event. His price is too high, particularly when you consider he is +6,600 to win, but after a full reset I will bet on this guy’s game every time.
Jordan Spieth
DraftKings Salary: $8,000
Did any golfer need a break more than Jordan Spieth? Ok, maybe Jason Day and his paper mache back, but it just feels like this break gave Spieth a chance to mentally reset. Golf.com recently wrote that Spieth could see a Rory-like comeback following the hiatus. Jordan Spieth owns Colonial. He grew up playing golf in Texas and it shows. No player even comes close to his track record here
Kevin Kisner
DraftKings Salary: $7,600
Given his game’s fit with this course, as well as his track record on the course, Kisner is massively undervalued at this price. As such, we have him projected to be the highest owned player for this week. The 2017 champion, Kisner has finished in the top 10 here in 3 out of the last four years.
Kevin Na
DraftKings Salary: $7,600
While we have Kisner projected to be the highest owned player this weekend, Na is just a hair under him with a nearly identical track record at Colonial. Na won the Charles Schwab last year and finished fourth here in 2018. Na was in typical form prior to the break, making 9 of 12 cuts with a win and two top 10 finishes.
Harris English
DraftKings Salary: $7,500
English has two top 5’s at Colonial in his career already, and was in great form prior to the break making 10 of 11 cuts with four top 10 finishes. He is currently 5th in the world in ball striking and at least one fantasy golf expert from Golf.com thinks he has a legitiamte shot (at 75:1) to win this week.
Joel Dahmen
DraftKings Salary: $7,500
Dahmen was on a tear prior to the hiatus, with back-to-back top 5 finishes and four top 10 finishes. He also finished in the top 20 in his Colonial debut two years ago and shot a 58 during the three month break.
Byeong Hun An
DraftKings Salary: $7,400
An is widely considered one of the better ball strikers on tour, so it is surprising to see him not a fan favorite considering he is also currently 4th in the world in SG: around the green. Hun An’s biggest weakness, by far, is his putting which as we pointed out earlier he should be able to hide on this course.
Ryan Palmer
DraftKings Salary: $7,400
While other golfers on this list may have games that fit this course, Palmer lives this course. Literally. He is a member here and played it throughout the hiatus, reportedly putting up some of his best rounds here to date. For his career, Palmer already has four top 10 finishes at the Colonial. At $7,400, he should at the very least make the cut and give you four days of scoring.
Russell Knox
DraftKings Salary: $7,200
You simply can’t run a model built for Colonial that doesn’t spit out Russell Knox as one of the better plays in this slate. He is easily Spieth’s closest rival here, trailing only him in SG: tee to green and well ahead of third place Sergia Garcia. He has finished in the top 25 each time he has played here, including a top 10 finish last year.
Emiliano Grillo
DraftKings Salary: $7,100
Thanks to his tee to green game, Grillo seems to always be in contention at the Charles Schwab and this year looks to be setting up nicely for him to make a run again. Grillo comes into this weenend in the top ten in both ball striking and SG: approach shots and is 44th in SG: tee to green. Grillo has three straight top 25 finishes here including a solo third in 2018.
