Patriots at Steelers: Best Underdog Picks for TNF
We are on a hot streak regarding primetime games. We have hit on five of our last six player props in these big games, with our only miss coming on Sunday Night Football this past week. Had the Kansas City Chiefs had another extra point opportunity, we’re confident that Harrison Butker would have hit the over.
With this in mind, we were excited to study the board for the Thursday Night Football matchup this week. This isn’t necessarily a tantalizing game, as the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots face off.
We like the Steelers’ chances to dominate in this game and expect the Patriots to struggle. This could be somewhat of a snoozefest, and oddsmakers tend to agree with this analysis with the current over/under set at 32 points.
Let’s look at our three favorite player props in this one, hoping to keep our hot streak alive!
Jaylen Warren OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards
This game could get ugly quickly. The Patriots continue to struggle weekly and are coming off a game where they scored zero points. If the Steelers get an early lead, they could get a bit more conservative with their game plan, turning to Warren and Najee Harris in the run game.
Warren continues to split time with Harris, but for the most part, he has looked like the better back in recent weeks. He has rushed for 43+ yards in his last five games, and we have little reason to believe this streak will end against the Patriots.
Look for another big game from Warren, hopefully hitting by the end of the third quarter to make this a sweat-free bet!
Pat Freiermuth OVER 3 Receptions
We thought this line would be higher. Pat Freiermuth’s role in the Steelers’ offense seems to increase weekly, and we believe he will be in line for a lot of work in this game.
Similarly to our analysis with Warren, Freiermuth could be used in short-yardage opportunities, helping the Steelers get first downs late in the game. Mitch Trubisky is familiar with this offense and should fit seamlessly in Kenny Pickett’s absence.
Look for a big game from Freiermuth, quickly hitting the over of three receptions.
DeVante Parker UNDER 36.5 Receiving Yards
After waiting nearly two days for Underdog to come out with wide receiver props for the Patriots, we quickly jumped on this line for DeVante Parker. We’re not expecting much from Bailey Zappe this week, especially against a tough Steelers secondary.
He might complete a few dump-off passes to running backs, but we don’t think he’ll have much success down the field. Parker is best utilized in plays of 10+ yards, something the Patriots will not likely do in this game.
Don’t be fooled by Parker’s 64-yard game against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. The Chargers’ secondary has been leaky this season, allowing 180.8 yards to opposing receivers. He had a great matchup last week, but the Steelers present a much tougher test, giving us reason to believe he will achieve less than 37 receiving yards in this game.
Sports Betting Contributor
Andrew is an up-and-coming sports betting analyst who specializes in Daily Fantasy Sports and player props in all sports. He holds degrees from Winona State University in Spanish and Communications. You can find Andrew on X @AndrewElmquist1