It’s March, and the Madness is officially upon us. While most of the larger conferences are just starting to crank up their conference tournaments, the West Coast Conference is treating us with a finals matchup between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. Both teams are 14-2 in conference play this season, so this promises to be one heck of a ballgame.
Ready to make some money tonight before tomorrow’s flurry of even more conference tournament games? You’ve come to the right place. You’ll find our parlay for Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s right here at HelloRookie.
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A Closer Look at the Point Spread
Most online sportsbooks opened with Gonzaga as a 3.5-point favorite over St. Mary’s for this contest. Some sharp action must have come in on the underdog because the line has moved down a full point to Gonzaga now only being a 2.5-point favorite. Does that mean St. Mary’s is primed to pull off the upset?
As for the total, it opened up at 138 before being bet up to its current number of 138.5 or 139. With 2 very good offenses squaring off, it’s easy to see why this line has been pushed a tad upward.
Why We Like Gonzaga
Even though there’s some supposed sharp action on St. Mary’s, we have to roll with the Bulldogs in this spot. Veteran forward Drew Timme leads the team in both points (21 per game) and rebounds (7.4 per game). We don’t think the Gaels will have an answer for him down low.
Gonzaga is also one of the hottest teams in the land, as they’ve won 8 games in a row. The Bulldogs’ offense has been clicking on all cylinders for most of the season, and they lead the country in points per game (86.8). St. Mary’s does have an excellent defense, but we don’t think they’ll be able to contain Gonzaga for an entire game.
Why We Like the Over 138.5
These two teams met twice during the month of February. In both of those contests, they easily went over this point total. They combined for 145 points on February 25th and 148 points on February 4th.
Things may be a little slow in the early going because it’s a title game. However, both teams can really shoot the rock, so we’re expecting both offenses to eventually prevail.
Gonzaga’s offense is simply too good to stop. On the other hand, the Bulldogs’ defense leaves a lot to be desired. They only rank 268th in the country in opponent shooting efficiency. That means that St. Mary’s should be able to do their fair share of damage on the offensive end of the floor.
Parlay: Gonzaga ML with OVER 138.5 (+189)
We’re jumping on this parlay at FanDuel. We’re going with the moneyline on Gonzaga because we do feel this will be a tight ballgame. The Over certainly seems very likely with these 2 powerhouse offenses.
Our numbers are projecting a 3-point Gonzaga win with a final score of 75-72. Best of luck with your Tuesday night action.
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