Our 4 Best Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 4
It’s been a great season to be a Dolphins or Eagles receiver and a tough season to be a Steelers or Ravens running back. Despite knowing that Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle would be a nearly uncoverable combination for Miami, it’s hard to grasp that their experiment has worked this well so quickly.
Lamar Jackson is the fifth-leading rusher in the NFL and also leads the league in passing touchdowns. It’s been an exciting start to the 2022 NFL season.
Handicapping game spreads and totals is one thing, but predicting player props on a week-to-week basis has proven to be volatile through three weeks. Last week’s player prop best bets went 2-2, and we’re back with another four-pack in Week 4.
Derek Carr UNDER 272.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -110 at BetMGM
This is a matchup of a top ten quarterback in terms of pass yards in Derek Carr against a top three defense against the pass in the Denver Broncos. Something has to give, and we’re siding with the defense in this instance.
Carr has not gotten help from his teammates in the form of a running game in 2022, and that will allow the Broncos to make life more difficult for him through the air. The Raiders rank 28th in the NFL in rushing yards compared to 7th in passing.
Denver hasn’t allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 220 yards through three games. We don’t see that trend changing this week so we’ll ride the Under!
J.K Dobbins UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Dobbins saw action in an NFL game for the first time since January 2021 and gained 23 rushing yards on seven carries in a Ravens win over the Patriots. He was the third-leading rusher for the team after Lamar Jackson’s 107 yards on 11 carries and Justice Hill’s six carries for 60 yards.
Dobbins will continue to increase his role in the offense over time to reduce the beating that Jackson takes by leaving the pocket, but his second game in 18 months against the Bills’ defense won’t be his breakout game.
Gabe Davis OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Davis returned to the Bills lineup in Week 3 and caught three passes for 37 yards in a loss to the Dolphins. This week he gets a matchup with the Ravens, who have allowed more than 1,000 passing yards in three games.
Baltimore will also be focusing a lot of attention on Josh Allen’s #1 target, Stefon Diggs. Davis should get at least another 6-8 targets and will surpass this yardage total with plenty of room to spare.
Dameon Pierce Anytime TD Scorer
Best Available Odds: +150 at DraftKings
Pierce worked his way up to 22 touches in Week 3 to establish himself at the top of the food chain in the Texans’ backfield. He gets a date against the Chargers, who have allowed 84 points through three games.
Los Angeles just announced that defensive end Joey Bosa would be going on IR, which removes one threat from the Chargers’ defensive line for Houston. Teams have had no issue moving the ball against the Chargers this year.
Davis Mills and company should have a chance to emerge from their struggling start in Week 4. This should mean some red zone carries and opportunities for Pierce.
Sports Betting Contributor
Nicholas brings over 10 years of sports betting and DFS experience to our team. He’s a player prop specialist who holds a degree from Penn State University. He enjoys a nice round of golf in his downtime and covers the NFL, NBA, baseball, CFB, and CBB. Mr. Berault is currently on a great run with his NFL best bets, so be sure to check those out!