The NFL enters Week 6 of the 2022 season, the first with bye weeks which leaves us without teams like the Detroit Lions, who have been great to prop bettors this season. The other teams missing from the schedule this week are the Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans.
With fewer games come fewer bets to offer odds for and fewer plays to choose from. These limited menu situations make handicapping plays appropriately that much more important.
Our NFL Sunday player prop bets wore the golden sombrero last week, going 0-3. An injury caused Teddy Bridgewater to leave the game and the Packers struggled against the Giants, which led to more throws from Aaron Rodgers than expected.
Jeff Wilson Jr. exploded for 120 rushing yards against the Panthers, capping off our tough week. As bettors know, losing will happen and our response to it will be a measured one. We have another slate of player prop bets ready to go for Week 6.
Tom Brady UNDER 274.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Brady and the Bucs face a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has not defended opponents well in 2022. Pittsburgh has not managed to score many points at the same time.
Tampa’s offense is beginning to gel, with their two highest yardage and point totals coming in the last two weeks. The majority of those points and yards came through the air.
Brady has thrown the ball 104 times in those two games, and we see this as an unsustainable amount of passing for a team with offensive line concerns. Brady will still have a nice day against the Steelers, but his work will be done early as the Bucs overwhelm Pittsburgh and eliminate the need for throwing the ball late into the game.
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
CMac has done the majority of his damage through the air the last two weeks, managing just 22 carries and 81 combined rushing yards in the Panthers’ losses to Arizona and San Francisco. In the passing game, he’s amassed 21 targets, caught 16 of those passes, and racked up 131 receiving yards.
This week, PJ Walker gets his first start of the season for a Carolina team under new management after Matt Rhule’s firing. Carolina will face the Rams, who can pressure the quarterback.
LA’s defensive line will be itching to get into the backfield. Chalk this up as another game in which McCaffrey gets 8-12 carries and does most of his work as a receiver.
Adam Thielen OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Thielen’s production has dropped off through the first five weeks of this season compared to the last few. He’s still getting a similar amount of targets and catches per game but has dropped below 50 yards receiving per game and only has one touchdown so far.
Comparatively, Thielen caught 24 touchdowns in 2020 and 2021 combined. Due to his volume not having changed much in terms of opportunities to make plays, and Thielen going over this total twice in his last three games, we’ll trust him to bounce back. It also doesn’t hurt that Justin Jefferson will be stalked by Xavien Howard on the other side of the field.
