Notre Dame vs. Penn State Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl is all set to feature an intense College Football Playoff semifinal matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams are coming into this CFP game with stellar 13-win seasons, but the stakes are higher than ever as they battle for a spot in the national championship.

There’s plenty of action to bet on in this game, so we’ve put together the odds, expert analysis, and prediction for how this game will unfold.

Betting Odds and Key Numbers

Notre Dame is currently listed as a 1.5-point favorite against Penn State. The moneyline sits at -125 for Notre Dame and +105 for Penn State which means the Fighting Irish are slight favorites for the Thursday night matchup.

The over/under is set at 45.5 by the bookmakers, so apparently their expectation is of a defensive battle between two top-10 scoring defenses. 

The spread has held steady at 1.5 since the opener, which only speaks to the tight nature of the game. Notre Dame has been on a tear this season with 12 straight wins, while Penn State enters with momentum after overcoming both SMU and Boise State in earlier playoff rounds.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame thrives on balance which could be the edge they need against the Nittany Lions.

Quarterback Riley Leonard leads the offense with a decent 2,092 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions on the season. While his numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page, his efficiency and poise are undeniable to anyone.

The Irish also lean heavily on their run game with Jeremiyah Love. The star RB has racked up 949 rushing yards and 15 TDs and isn’t slowing down in the playoffs.

Defensively, Notre Dame is nothing less than elite. They’ve allowed an average of just 13.6 points per game, the second-best mark in the country.

Despite losing star defensive lineman Rylie Mills in the quarterfinals, their front 7 showed absolutely no signs of slowing down. It’s almost as if they cranked up their energy to make up for losing Mills. They delivered 9 tackles for loss against Georgia.

If the defense can maintain its dominance, and we’re pretty confident they can, the Irish have a clear path to victory.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State counters the Fighting Irish with an explosive offense and a stout defense.

Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions’ star QB, has been on fire this season with 2,894 passing yards and 21 TDs. His ability to connect with his top receiver Tyler Warren — who has 1,062 yards, and 6 touchdowns — has kept defenses on their heels all season. The duo will need to keep this pace up if they want to overwhelm Notre Dame’s dominant secondary.

On the ground, their game is just as solid. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have combined for nearly 1,700 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, making Penn State’s run game one of their key weapons.

Defensively, the Nittany Lions rank 7th nationally as they’ve given up just 15.8 points per game. The real X-factor for Penn State is Abdul Carter. He’s a dynamic edge rusher with 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks attributed to him. His ability to disrupt Notre Dame’s offense and keep pressure on Leonard could tilt the game in Penn State’s favor.

Our Prediction and Best Bet

This game is shaping up to be a defensive slugfest. With two elite units vying for control of the line of scrimmage, it’s no wonder the bookmakers have the total set at 45.5 points for the game.

Notre Dame has shown exceptional consistency on both sides of the ball, particularly during their 12-game win streak. Their ability to adapt and find ways to win even in tight games gives them the edge here. This is really Notre Dame’s game to lose.

While Penn State’s offense definitely has more firepower, Notre Dame’s balanced attack and unquestionably stingy defense make them the safer bet for the Capital One Orange Bowl.

We’re looking for the Fighting Irish to wear down Penn State with their ground game and control the tempo.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 20
• Best Bet: Notre Dame -1.5

With a spread this close, taking Notre Dame to cover the spread feels like the right play. Their proven ability to deliver in high-pressure games combined with their defensive dominance gives them a slight edge in what we’re thinking will be a tightly contested Orange Bowl showdown.