The last week of the NFL regular season is always a crapshoot. Some teams have a ton to play for, while others are simply ready to book their relaxing vacations. That being said, it can be tough to find positive EV opportunities on the board.
Need some help navigating the trick NFL Week 18 card? We got you covered. Here are 3 player prop bets for Saturday, January 7. Best of luck with your picks!
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On First Wager
Darren Waller Anytime Touchdown
Best Available Odds: +330 at FanDuel
Waller has scored only 3 touchdowns on the season but has also only played in 8 total games. That said, he has scored in 2 of his last 3, and Jarret Stidham seems to be a fan of throwing to the tight end in his limited time behind center.
He faces the Chiefs, who have allowed the majority of opposing touchdowns to come through the air. Waller will hit pay dirt at some point in this game!
Josh Dobbs Over 0.5 Interceptions
Best Available Odds: -152 at BetRivers
Dobbs is getting his 2nd start of the season after last week. He did through a pick last week against Dallas, and he is likely to do the same here in Jacksonville.
The Jags have picked off QBs 4 times in their last 4 games which includes getting 2 off of Dak Prescott. The Jags should be leading the majority of the way here, and Dobbs will need to throw more than he would want to here.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 319.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -125 at DraftKings
Mahomes needs 430 yards passing in order to set the single-season record. Now, he may not be able to achieve that number and set the record, but we believe he will certainly try.
He has gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 games. He posted under 300 last time against these Raiders, but at this point, the teams are much different. Mahomes will fall short of the record but over this total.
BONUS 1st Touchdown Darts
We love playing the odds on the 1st touchdown of the game when it is a 2 game slate. Here are the 4 players that we believe provide the most value on the 1st touchdown prop for Saturday.
While we don’t recommend going too crazy with these, we think each of these bets is worth about a fourth of your normal wager size.
Davante Adams +900 (BetMGM)
Kadarius Toney +1600 (DraftKings)
Evan Engram +1100 (FanDuel)
Chigoziem Okonkwo +2500 (FanDuel)
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