This Sunday will be a much quieter one in terms of NFL action on our TV screens, with the majority of games taking place the day before on Christmas Eve. Two midday matchups will pave the way for the Bucs and Cardinals on Sunday Night Football, and we’ll focus our attention on those games to keep Christmas afternoon interesting for bettors.
Green Bay could not have scheduled their Miami road trip at a more opportune time than this week, and the Packers are 4-point underdogs to the Dolphins for the early kick game.
Next, the Rams host the Broncos as 2.5-point home underdogs in their third game with Baker Mayfield under center. We dig into the betting opportunities from these two games a little later.
Disappointingly, our NFL Sunday prop plays finished 1-3 last week. It’s becoming expensive to fade Jared Goff, even against good defenses, as he threw for 252 yards against the Jets to hand us a loss on his yardage prop.
Keenan Allen and Joe Mixon added to the losses on our Week 15 card, and we managed to avoid a golden sombrero thanks to Justin Fields finishing with less than 170.5 passing yards in Chicago’s loss to Philadelphia.
We look to avoid the dreaded lump of coal in our stocking with Week 16’s edition of Sunday player prop best bets that are presented below.
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Best Available Odds: -140 at DraftKings
The Packers rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense this season and allow just 185 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. More relevant to this play, they have allowed 19 passing touchdowns in 14 games and have allowed zero passing touchdowns in six of those.
When looking closer at the matchups, the quarterbacks who have thrown multiple touchdowns against Green Bay include Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill, Taylor Heinicke, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. The list of quarterbacks they’ve bottled up consists of Bailey Zappe, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields (twice), Baker Mayfield, and Daniel Jones.
We believe it’s pretty clear which of those two groups Tua belongs in as the quarterback who’s thrown for the 5th most TD passes in the NFL this season. Take him to throw for multiple touchdowns this week at home against the Packers.
Latavius Murray OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -109 at Caesars
Normally it would be crazy to bet on the running back from a team that can’t throw the football when they are facing the Rams. Thankfully, this version of the LA defense does not feature Aaron Donald, who missed practice Wednesday recovering from an ankle injury, and the Broncos had some success throwing the ball with Brett Rypien last week against Arizona.
Murray thrived in Denver’s win against the Cardinals and posted a season-high 130 rushing yards on 24 carries with a touchdown to boot. Los Angeles has allowed 130 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks with Donald out of the lineup.
We expect a similar game plan from the Broncos’ staff and some vulnerabilities in the Rams’ defense to add up to another nice day from Murray.
Baker Mayfield UNDER 194.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
After his stellar debut as a Ram ended with a two-minute drill for the ages against the Raiders, Mayfield was reduced to the inefficient passer he’s been all season last week against Green Bay. His matchup this week is not a reprieve, and Denver’s 5th-ranked pass defense will cause more problems for the Rams’ midseason acquisition.
The Broncos are also averaging 3 sacks per game in December without Bradley Chubb anchoring their defensive line anymore. With an ineffective run game and a battered receiving corps, Mayfield will struggle for the second straight week.