Underdogs continue to bark this season in the NFL. Five won outright in Week 14, and more importantly, there were eight teams that at least covered the spread as dogs to extend their lead this season to 110-93-5.
Meanwhile, over bettors took a small semblance of revenge in Week 14 by cashing in seven out of the 13 games. The 2022 tally still leans heavily toward betting under the total with a record of 112-93-3. Either way, bettors are beating the sportsbooks if they’re playing the right spots this season.
After a feisty midseason run that took us to the brink of a 60% hit rate for the year, we experienced our first losing week since late October as our under bets for the Eagles-Giants and Jaguars-Titans games both lost. We did have one successful bet to minimize the damage, with the reliable AFC North matchup between the Browns and Bengals finishing well under the total.
Our record for the 2022 season is now 27-20 through 14 weeks. With four weeks of regular season action remaining and the first playoff spot of 2022 already clinched, it’s time to lock in and regain our stride with Week 15’s NFL best bets.
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Steelers @ Panthers UNDER 38.5
Charlotte will feel a bit like Pittsburgh on Sunday as the cold weather creeps further south, which, among several factors, will contribute to a low-scoring grappling match between the Steelers and Panthers. Pittsburgh has allowed 17 points or less to four of their last five opponents, and Carolina has done the same in three of their last four.
The Panthers running game paved the way to an impressive road win in Seattle last week as they racked up 223 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Pittsburgh allows just 4.2 yards per rush to opposing teams in 2022, which ranks them 7th in the NFL.
They’ve also allowed just seven rushing touchdowns on the season, tied for third among all teams. With a Kenny Pickett injury mixed into this situation, we will confidently play the under in the game with the lowest total on the board.
Jets PK over Lions
Two teams that were not expected to be appearing at the top of ‘In the Hunt’ graphics around league broadcasts at this point in the season were the Lions and Jets.
Detroit has won five of six to put themselves within striking distance, while the Jets have lost four of six and are at the bottom of a three-way tiebreak for the last playoff spot.
Detroit has been beating everyone by simply outscoring them, even though opponents have averaged 382 yards of offense in that span. The Jets are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play, yards per pass attempt, and yards per rush allowed on defense, and host a team that has gotten hot at home recently.
Defense will win out in this battle between a public darling in the Lions and the better football team to bet on in the Jets. We’ll take Robert Saleh’s boys to get the job done in this one!
Giants @ Commanders UNDER 40.5
These two teams played to a 20-20 tie two weeks ago. Since then, New York predictably lost to Philadelphia, and Washington had their late-season bye week.
The Commanders and Giants now occupy the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC with an equal record of 7-5-1, meaning there are major wild card implications at play this Sunday night.
Both teams ran for more than 130 yards in their Week 13 matchup, and we expect that to set the tone for this rematch. Washington’s opponents have scored 17 points or less in five of their last six games, and the Giants will be eager to right the ship after the Eagles just hung 48 on them. Take the under in DC.