There was a slight recovery against the spread for underdogs in the NFL during Week 12. Those teams finished 8-7-1 against the closing line and currently are 97-78-5 for the season-long record.
Betting the under across the board last week continued an interesting trend of closely mirroring the record of underdogs, matching it exactly at 8-7-1 for the Thanksgiving weekend. That leaves under players with a similar record for the full season tally at 99-79-2.
November was a great month for our NFL best bets and we capped it off with a 2-1 result in Week 12 to extend our run over the last five weeks to 11-5. Our season-long record stands at 23-17.
The Cleveland Browns won outright as 3.5-point underdogs against Tampa Bay and the Texans and Dolphins cooled off in the second half of their matchup to stay under the total of 46.5 points. Our only loss on the card came on Thanksgiving night when the Vikings and Patriots combined for 59 points to sail well past the total while we were on the under.
After five straight winning weeks, we look to close in on the 60% mark for the season with the Week 13 edition of NFL best bets.
Steelers @ Falcons: UNDER 42.5
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
The Steelers are among the worst offensive teams in the NFL when playing on the road, averaging just 15 points per game in 2022. They defeated the Colts in Indy on Monday night for their first road win since Week 1 and the 24 points they scored were the most in a road game this season.
Atlanta themselves are scoring just 18 points per game over the last four weeks and have won just once in that stretch. We predict another low-scoring affair between these two teams that struggle to consistently score.
Jaguars (+1) over Lions
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
These 4-7 teams meet on Sunday in Detroit after both had strong performances last week. The Lions dropped a close game to Buffalo on Thanksgiving afternoon and put up 35 points on one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Jacksonville mounted a late comeback against Baltimore to win on their home field for the second straight game.
Detroit is last in the NFL in total offense allowed on their home field by a wide margin and the Jags are 9th in the league in yards per game in 2022.
We expect a close, back-and-forth contest with Jacksonville edging out Detroit on the road.
49ers (-4) over Dolphins
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
Betting favorites is not something we’d like to make a habit out of but this spot is an exception worth making. San Francisco is quietly 6th in the NFL in yards per play on offense this season while maintaining the top spot in opponent yards per play throughout 2022.
The expectation is that Miami will be a popular public bet and we’ll take advantage of the chance to fade the herd. Public dogs tend to get slaughtered! Lay the points!
Bengals (+2.5) over Chiefs
Best Available Odds: -110 at BetMGM
Speaking of fading the public, how many bettors are going to see Kansas City as less than a field goal favorite and immediately jump on it? We anticipate that number will be extremely high.
The Bengals are averaging 33 points per game over the last three weeks and have won five of their last six heading into a home matchup with the Chiefs. We’ll zig while others zag once again this season and take Cincinnati as slim home underdogs in Week 13.
