NFL Player Props Betting Guide: Top Picks for Week 2 Sunday Slate

Need help betting on the Week 2 NFL slate? Our team of industry insiders can help! We’ve crunched the numbers to bring you our top picks for the Sunday slate of games. Let’s cash some tickets!

Lamar Jackson (BAL) Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-114)

This Under is a tad bit scary because Jackson just threw the ball 41 times in Week 1 against Kansas City. That said, Baltimore was playing from behind for all of the second half so they had to air it out a little more than they normally would. This game against Las Vegas will be a much different story.

First, let’s think about the possible game script. Oddsmakers have installed the Ravens as a 9.5-point favorite for this matchup against the Raiders. That point spread screams blowout city, which means that offensive coordinator Todd Monken will probably elect to just pound the rock the entire fourth quarter.

Next, let’s talk about the mathematical edges for the Under on this prop. Jackson had a median passing attempts number of just 27 last season, which is 3.5 less than the current line. The former Louisville star also stayed under 30.5 passing attempts in 10 of his 16 regular season games in 2023. Give me the Under!

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Under 4.5 Receptions (-122)

I love to target Unders in matchups with low game totals. This Seattle vs. New England game definitely fits that mold, as it’s currently sitting at 38 points. That means that oddsmakers are expecting a slower pace game with fewer possessions for each team.

This play also makes a ton of sense from a math standpoint, as Smith-Njigba only had a median receptions number of 4 last season. The former Ohio State star also stayed under this total in 13 of his 17 ball games in 2023. JSN also only got 2 targets in Week 1.

New England proved in Week 1 that its defense is better than most folks realize. The Pats pass rush looked pretty good, so I expect lots of running plays with Kenneth Walker if he’s able to play. Let’s ride JSN under this total to the payout window!

Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 21.5 Completions (-114)

Mayfield has finally found a home in Tampa and it’s nice that he’s turned his career around with the Bucs. The former Oklahoma star just lit up the Commanders by going 24 of 30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. The sledding will be much tougher against the Lions, but I still expect a solid game from him in this spot.

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit has the highest game total on the Sunday board, so any type of Over makes sense from a player props perspective. The game script should also help us with this Over. The Bucs are 7.5-point underdogs, so Mayfield should be dropping back to pass quite often just to keep pace with the Lions.

Mayfield had a median completions number of just 21 last year, but I think that has to be adjusted upward by at least 10% because of the potential game flow. Mayfield has also gone over this total in 11 of his last 20 games. 

David Montgomery (DET) Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

Montgomery is the workhorse of this Detroit offense, and he never seems to get enough credit. He scored the game-winning touchdown in OT last week for the Lions and I think he’ll have another big game against the Bucs. Even with all of their weapons at wideout, Detroit’s true identity is running the ball behind that big offensive line.

Several math trends pointed me in the direction of this Over. Montgomery had a median of 15.5 rushing attempts in 2023. He also got 14 or more carries in 11 of his 17 ball games.

With the Lions being a 7.5-point favorite in this contest, you have to think that the game flow will lead to lots of carries for Montgomery late in the game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Bucs allowed 4.6 yards per carry last week, which ranked just 20th in the league!