NFL Best Bets for Sunday, October 1

Week 3 brought better results in the best bet department, and our picks went 2-1 to level the 2023 record at 4-4-1 through three weeks. The Browns smothered the Titans in nearly every statistical category to help cash the first under in Cleveland.

At the same time, the Patriots and Jets played an expectedly low-scoring contest at MetLife Stadium to give us a 2-0 start to the day in the early window. We had a chance to get to 3-0 when the Seahawks and Panthers ended the first quarter tied at three, but both teams averaged at least 5.0 yards per play and combined for 64 points in a no-doubt loser for us.

Looking ahead to Week 4, it’s hard to believe the first month of the season has almost passed us by. This early fall Sunday brings us the first London game of the year as the local regulars, the Jaguars, play the Falcons in a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff from Wembley Stadium.

The game of the day could happen in the 1 p.m. ET window when the Dolphins and Bills meet for the first time this season. Both are coming off impressive wins, but Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points at home.

Fans are also treated to two matchups between winless teams this weekend. The Broncos, who allowed 70 points to the Dolphins on Sunday, are favored on the road by 3 points against the Bears. Talk about a line that stinks!

That game will be played as the Vikings make the trip to Carolina to face the Panthers during the early kickoffs. Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite away from home in their quest for a first victory. We have sifted through the board and present our best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season.

Falcons vs. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 (in London)

The Jags and Falcons rank 21st and 23rd in scoring, respectively, and are in the bottom half of the league in yards per play after three games. Jacksonville hasn’t been able to establish their ground game due to playing from behind, and Atlanta has been a top-ten defensive unit against the run in 2023.

Offensively, the Falcons have one of the worst passing attacks in the league, are top ten in rushing, and have limited their turnovers as a result of playing conservatively with a new starting quarterback.

The total has been a toss-up in London games dating back to 2007, but we see this one swaying to the under.

Ravens @ Browns UNDER 41.5

Cleveland and Baltimore currently own the top two spots for the fewest yards per play allowed defensively and are top ten in scoring defense as well. The Browns are fresh off their impressive win against Tennessee, while the Ravens let a home game against the Colts slip away in overtime despite out-playing Indy by most measurable standards.

What killed the Ravens in Week 3 were their two turnovers, fumbles by Lamar Jackson and Kenyan Drake that cost them a chance at a red zone opportunity in one instance and another that gave the Colts the ball inside the opposing 20.

Baltimore was fortunate to give up just three points on those two turnovers, but that may not be the case if they are so careless against Cleveland. We expect a back-and-forth, low-scoring game between two teams that pride themselves on running the ball and pressuring opposing quarterbacks.