New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction: Can the Sun Slow Down a Red-Hot Liberty Squad?

The Liberty are rolling and the Sun are reeling, and Mohegan Sun Arena on Saturday afternoon looks like a mismatch on paper before the ball is even tipped.

Quick take:

• Pick: New York Liberty -7.5
• Why: New York is red-hot at 8-2 in its last 10 while Connecticut has lost 12 of its last 15 and just got run off the floor by Atlanta
• The number to watch: Liberty are 9-4 straight up when favored by 8.5 or more this season, a spot they’ll be in again Saturday

New York (21-14) sits third in the East and enters on a one-game winning streak after knocking off the Las Vegas Aces 85-81 on Thursday, part of an 8-2 surge that has the Liberty playing their best basketball since the calendar flipped to August. Before that win, New York also handled Seattle twice and blew out the Aces 111-71 earlier in the week, a run that has quietly pushed the Liberty back into the thick of the East’s top tier behind Indiana and Atlanta.

Connecticut (8-24) is stuck in last place in the conference, and Thursday’s 104-69 blowout loss to Atlanta was the kind of performance that makes this one look lopsided before it even starts. The Sun have dropped 12 of their last 15 games, and while there have been scattered signs of life — a road win over Phoenix earlier this month among them — this roster simply hasn’t had the firepower to hang with the East’s better teams for a full 40 minutes.

This is New York’s second trip to Uncasville this season, and the Liberty have handled business against the Sun both times they’ve met, including a comfortable 89-80 road win back in June and a 106-75 blowout in May. Connecticut hasn’t beaten New York yet this season, and nothing about either team’s recent form suggests Saturday changes that trend.

What the Betting Market Is Saying

Sportsbooks have made New York a heavy favorite, with lines hovering around Liberty -7.5 to -8.5 depending on the book and moneylines in the -345 to -350 range for New York against +265 for Connecticut. The total sits in the 172.5-175.5 range, reflecting a game where the market expects the Liberty offense to do most of the damage. New York has gone 5-8 against the spread this season as a favorite of 8.5 or more, so the number isn’t a guaranteed cover even with the talent gap — but oddsmakers clearly see this as a game New York controls from tip to horn.

Friday, September 18 at 7:30 PM	Spread	Money	Total
New York Liberty	+7.5 (-115)	+210	O 178.5 (-110)
Minnesota Lynx	-7.5 (-105)	-250	U 177.5 (-114)

Recent Form

The gap between these two teams’ trajectories right now is stark — New York is peaking at the right time, while Connecticut is trending the wrong way with a five-game skid mixed into its last stretch of games.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Health Report Tilts This Even Further

New York will again be without Satou Sabally, who has taken an indefinite leave from the team while working through a lingering head injury, and Leonie Fiebich remains out with a foot issue that kept her out of Thursday’s win over the Aces. Sabrina Ionescu is questionable with a foot ailment of her own, though she’s played through it recently. Even shorthanded, the Liberty have enough firepower up top — Breanna Stewart is averaging 21.6 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, and Jonquel Jones has quietly been a load underneath at 14.6 points and 9.1 boards.

Stewart has averaged 21.3 points and 7.3 rebounds in her head-to-head history against Connecticut’s frontcourt, and she’s shooting 47.6% from the floor on the season.

Connecticut counters with Brittney Griner (13.2 PPG, 1.8 BPG), who is questionable with a knee issue of her own, and Leila Lacan running the offense at 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals a game. Aneesah Morrow has been a bright spot on the glass at 8.9 rebounds a night. It’s a solid supporting cast, but it’s not built to hang with New York’s frontline for 40 minutes, especially on a short week after absorbing a 35-point beating from the Dream.

New York’s depth matters here too. Even with Sabally sidelined, players like Pauline Astier have stepped into bigger roles and given the Liberty another ballhandler alongside Ionescu, which should help offset any rust if Ionescu is limited by her foot. Astier is averaging 3.5 assists a night off the bench, and that kind of secondary playmaking is exactly what makes New York’s rotation deep enough to withstand injuries that would cripple most other rosters.

New York’s stretch-run positioning is worth keeping an eye on too — bettors tracking the East race can check live sports betting odds throughout the week as playoff seeding shakes out over the season’s final month.

Prediction and Best Bet

Connecticut has shown flashes of competitiveness this season — a win over Phoenix last week proves the Sun aren’t rolling over completely — but this is a bad matchup against a Liberty team playing its most complete basketball of the second half. Expect New York’s size and scoring balance to be too much down the stretch.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Liberty 91, Connecticut Sun 78
2. Best Bet: Liberty -7.5

New York’s frontcourt production alone should be enough to cover, and betting on a team playing its best basketball of the year against one in freefall is usually the right side.