Moreno vs Royval 2 Betting Preview: Our Top Bets for UFC Fight Night

Hola amigos! UFC returns to Mexico City this weekend with thirteen fights, headlined by the former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and recent number-one contender Brandon Royval.

Let’s work our way up the card to place some best bets. Best of luck with all your wagers this weekend!

Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam o2.5 -120 (Bet365)

Ziam’s grappling worries me in this one. He’s a lanky lightweight who has great kickboxing skills, but two years ago Terrance Mckinney was able to sub him in just two minutes.

He’s shown improvement in his last matchups since then, but his opponents were far from the grappler Puelles is. Both fighters should avoid each other’s strengths, making the over a strong play.

Ziam is the superior striker, but he’ll be cautious before over-committing lands him in Puelles’ world, while Pulles will want to be patient to avoid stepping into a big shot.

Puelles by Sub +350 (Bet365)

I’m shocked to see Puelles by submission at this number, especially since we think it should be about +230. Feel free to throw a half-unit or so on Puelles to do what he does best.

It’s his only path to victory, and if can catch Dan Hooker in a leg lock, then he can do the same to Ziam. Bet365 is being awfully generous and we’ll take a shot on Puelles.

Parlay: Naimov by TKO or Dec AND Jauregui by TKO or Dec (-125 at FanDuel)

Naimov and Jauregui are regarded as the “locks” of the card, and both matchups call for them to avoid grappling with their opponents.

Naimov is a strong grappler, but his opponent—Erik Silva—is known for his Ju-Jitsu and nothing more. Silva tends to leave his hands down in exchanges, which could be disastrous against the heavy-handed Naimov. Naimov has only two submission wins in his career, so he should feel no need to grapple with Silva and instead use the clear advantage on the feet en route to a KO or decision win.

In Jauregui’s case, she takes on Sam Hughes—a wrestler with great cardio. Jauregui is coming off a 20-second knockout loss to Denise Gomes, so expect a more cautious version of her to get back in the win column. Jauregui will look to use her solid takedown defense to keep this one upright, where she should outclass Hughes with her boxing.

Yair Rodriguez ML -145 (Caesars)

I like Brian Ortega, but this isn’t a great return fight for him after a shoulder injury forced him out of their first bout in 2022. While Ortega was out, Yair was facing top featherweight contenders Josh Emmett and Alexander Volkanovski, so it’s safe to say he should be the more improved fighter for their rematch.

Rodriguez doubled the number of strikes Ortega landed in their first matchup before the injury occurred, but he will have to defend against Ortega’s elite grappling. However, Yair has never been submitted and Ortega’s aggressive style on the mat will give Yair chances to get this one back on the feet.

Additionally, if this one gets to the late rounds, Ortega will have to battle the high-altitude that Rodriguez regularly trains in. Too many factors are working against Ortega to not back Yair’s ML at a very reasonable price.

Parlay: Brandon Moreno ML + o9.5 minutes -115 (DraftKings)

After watching Brandon Roval, it’s clear that the path to victory is to take him down, and that’s what Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja displayed in their wins against him.

Moreno’s victory over Royval came when Royval injured his shoulder late in the first round (sound familiar?), and Pantoja was able to rack up 15 minutes of control time to a decision win two months ago. With Moreno shooting early and succeeding in their first matchup, it should be no secret that he’ll look to do the same for Saturday’s main event.

Moreno nearly pulled off a rear-naked choke in that one, but Royval was able to escape, and Pantoja was also unable to finish him during the three rounds’ worth of control time he had. For that reason, I like this one to hit the late rounds with Moreno using his wrestling to score a decision win or a late-round stoppage. DK offers minutes props in their parlays, so essentially, all we need is a Moreno victory and this one to start the third round.