The best team in the WNBA is walking right back into the building where it just won, and the Aces are out for revenge in the same week they got embarrassed there.
Quick take:
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -1.5
- Why: The Lynx have won nine of their last ten and just took down this same Aces team on this same floor a week ago
- The number to watch: Minnesota is 14-2 on the road this season
Minnesota (28-7) rolls into Michelob ULTRA Arena as the WNBA’s top overall seed, and it’s not particularly close — the Lynx sit three games clear of Golden State and four ahead of Las Vegas in the Western Conference. Las Vegas (24-11) has won two straight since that ugly 98-87 home loss to the Lynx on August 8, but the Aces needed both of those wins to come against a Washington team well outside the playoff picture, not against the league’s best.
What the Odds Are Saying About a Third Meeting in a Week
Books have Minnesota favored by anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 points depending on the shop, with the moneyline hovering around -120 to -132 on the Lynx and the Aces sitting in the +100 to +112 range. The total has settled in the 182-184 range, reflecting two offenses that both crack 90 points a game on a good night. That’s a tighter number than you’d expect for a four-game gap in the standings, and it tells you the market still respects A’ja Wilson and a Las Vegas team that beat this same Lynx group in overtime on the road back on August 6.
For bettors tracking the number all week, it hasn’t moved much since it opened, which usually means the books feel good about where they’ve landed. Anyone shopping for the best number should check live betting odds before kickoff, since even half a point of movement matters on a game this close.
| Thursday, September 17 at 10:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Las Vegas Aces | 
-8.5 (-115) |
-360 | 
O 173.5 (-106) |
| Seattle Storm | 
+8.5 (-112) |
+295 |
U 173.5 (-115) |
Recent Form
Minnesota has been the league’s most consistent team over the last month, while Las Vegas has been feast-or-famine — capable of both a 111-71 blowout loss to New York and a gritty two-game sweep of Washington in the same stretch.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +4.5 / 182.5 | Lost 89-81 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +9.5 / 172.5 | Lost 89-81 | Won / Under |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 / 153.5 | Lost 66-80 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | -8.5 / 173.5 | Won 84-94 | Won / Over |
| Aug 20, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | -4.5 / 160.5 | Won 66-77 | Won / Under |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 / 182.5 | Won 87-92 | Won / Under |
| Aug 13, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -15.5 / 189.5 | Won 81-85 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dallas Wings | -5.5 / 180.5 | Won 103-90 | Won / Over |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | -8.5 / 189.5 | Won 98-87 | Won / Under |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -22.5 / 190.5 | Lost 82-89 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -17.5 / 176.5 | Won 93-73 | Won / Under |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -16.5 / 180.5 | Won 78-88 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -16.5 / 168.5 | Won 101-78 | Won / Over |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atlanta Dream | -3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 82-97 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | +3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 87-92 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -10.5 / 169.5 | Won 86-76 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -10.5 / 169.5 | Won 83-76 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -6.5 / 172.5 | Won 86-76 | Won / Under |
| Aug 9, 2026 | @New York Liberty | +19.5 / 173.5 | Lost 111-71 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 8, 2026 | @Minnesota Lynx | +8.5 / 189.5 | Lost 98-87 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Minnesota Lynx | +3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 87-92 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | @Las Vegas Aces | -8.5 / 189.5 | Won 98-87 | Won / Under |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Minnesota Lynx | -3.5 / 174.5 | Won 100-97 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Minnesota Lynx | +1.5 / 164.5 | Won 97-87 | Won / Over |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Minnesota Lynx | +4.5 / 167.5 | Lost 58-111 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Minnesota Lynx | @Las Vegas Aces | -9.5 / 163.5 | Won 109-78 | Won / Over |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Minnesota Lynx | @Las Vegas Aces | -12.5 / 160.5 | Won 76-62 | Won / Under |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Minnesota Lynx | @Las Vegas Aces | +3.5 / 167.5 | Won 87-74 | Won / Under |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Las Vegas Aces | @Minnesota Lynx | -6.5 / 167.5 | Lost 87-98 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Las Vegas Aces | @Minnesota Lynx | -7.5 / 166.5 | Lost 86-100 | Lost / Over |
Collier’s Return Changes Everything For Minnesota
Napheesa Collier has only played eight regular-season games back from injury, but she’s already averaging 19.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists on 52.2% shooting — numbers that put the Lynx’s ceiling right back where it was during her MVP-caliber 2025 season. She dropped 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting in Wednesday’s win at Portland, and she torched the Aces for 22 points and six rebounds in the August 8 meeting in Las Vegas. Pair her with Courtney Williams (14.7 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Olivia Miles (19.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 6.1 APG this stretch) running the offense, and Minnesota simply has more two-way weapons on the floor than Las Vegas can matchup against for 40 minutes.
A’ja Wilson is still the best individual player in this game — she’s putting up roughly 26 points and nearly 10 rebounds a night and remains a matchup nightmare in the post. But Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young all sat out the second half of a back-to-back last weekend to manage the grind of the schedule, a small but real sign of how physically taxing this stretch has been on Las Vegas’s stars heading into a third meeting with Minnesota this season.
Natasha Howard has quietly been the Lynx’s most reliable rebounder all year, averaging 7.7 boards a game, and her ability to bang inside with Wilson without needing extra help from the perimeter is exactly why Minnesota’s defense has been so difficult to crack. It’s a small, unglamorous role, but it’s part of why the Lynx allow the fewest points per game of any playoff team in the conference.
Minnesota is 14-2 at home and 14-2 on the road this season — there is no version of this Lynx team that plays down to a building.
That road split matters here. Las Vegas has been competitive at Michelob ULTRA Arena, but the Lynx have shown zero drop-off away from Target Center, and they’re carrying real momentum into this one — nine wins in their last ten games, with the only loss in that stretch a 21-point Collier outing in a defeat to the Valkyries. Chelsea Gray’s 7.0 assists per game keep the Aces’ offense humming when healthy, but Las Vegas has to find a way to slow down a Lynx team getting stronger by the week as Collier rounds back into form.
Prediction and Best Bet
Minnesota has already beaten this Aces team on this floor once this season, has the deeper rotation, and is playing arguably the best basketball in the league right now. Las Vegas has enough firepower with Wilson and Gray to keep this within a possession or two, but the Lynx have earned the right to be favored in this spot.
The pick:
- Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 91, Las Vegas Aces 86
- Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx -1.5
Bet the number that’s actually on the board here — Minnesota’s depth and recent history against this exact opponent make the spread the safer play over either side of the total.
