The Knicks and Pacers meet Friday night in Indianapolis, and prediction markets have a clear opinion about who walks out with the win. New York sits at roughly 73.5 percent to take the game, while Indiana sits at about 26.5 percent. The reason is simple: the Pacers will be without their franchise guard.

What the Prediction Market Is Saying

Prediction markets work a bit like a stock ticker for sports. Traders buy and sell shares on each outcome, and the price reflects what the crowd believes the chances are. Here is how the Knicks-Pacers markets look heading into tip-off.

The game tips at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and streams on Prime Video as part of the NBA Cup. Traditional sportsbooks do not agree on a single number. Depending on where you look, the Knicks are laid anywhere from about 2.5 to 6.5 points, and the total ranges from roughly 218.5 to 233.5. Treat any one line as a snapshot, not gospel.

Why the Pacers Are the Underdog

The biggest story is who is not playing. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain, and Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are also out. Aaron Nesmith is questionable with a sore right knee after leaving Wednesday’s game, while T.J. McConnell is listed as probable.

Indiana has also struggled to start the year, sitting at 4-8 after losing eight of its first 12 games. The team has had a rough time at home, too, with reports differing slightly on the exact record. Recent results have been a mixed bag: a 108-104 loss to the Hawks, a 107-103 win over the Grizzlies, a 114-102 loss to the Nuggets, a 125-122 loss to the Mavericks and a 114-101 win over the Wizards.

The Knicks Are Rolling

New York started 0-3 but has since won six of its last seven to improve to 6-5. Recent results include a 103-90 win over the Nets, a 135-105 win over the Bulls, a 109-97 win over the Cavaliers and a 117-85 win over the Bucks, with a 115-107 loss to Cleveland the most recent blip. The Knicks have also outrebounded every opponent over their last five games, and they have a reputation as one of the league’s better defensive teams.

Jalen Brunson is the engine of the offense, and he gets a friendlier matchup against a Pacers backcourt missing its top playmaker. The one wrinkle for New York is the schedule: this is the third game in four nights, and Josh Hart is listed as questionable.

What the Model Says

One computer model from Fox Sports has the Knicks winning a close one, 111-108. That is a much tighter gap than the 73.5 percent prediction market price suggests, which is a good reminder that a high win probability does not mean a blowout. It is also the first meeting of the season between these two teams, so there is no head-to-head data from this year to lean on.

How the Game Could Play Out

With Haliburton sidelined, the Pacers will lean on depth and effort to keep things close. Indiana has shown it can score in bunches, scoring 122 points in a 125-122 loss to Dallas, so the offense is not broken. The question is whether it can get enough stops against a Knicks team that has held opponents to 85, 90 and 97 points during its recent run.

Rebounding is another thing to watch. New York has won the battle of the boards against every opponent in its last five games, which creates extra possessions and cuts down on easy transition chances for the other side. If Indiana cannot hold its own on the glass, the gap in the market price could start to look justified. If the Pacers do, a home underdog with a rested rotation and nothing to lose is exactly the kind of team that makes a 73.5 percent favorite sweat.

The Knicks’ own fatigue is the best argument for Indiana. Playing a third game in four nights can sap legs late, and if Josh Hart is unable to go, New York loses one of its more versatile wing defenders and rebounders at a bad time.

The Takeaway

If you are new to prediction markets, the big idea is that the price is the probability. A 73.5 percent Knicks price means the market sees New York winning about three out of every four times this exact game is played. The Haliburton absence explains most of that gap, but the back-to-back-to-back schedule and the Hart question mark keep this from being a sure thing. Whatever you do with the information, keep it fun and only play within your budget. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.