Deebo Samuel Under 4.5 Receptions (-119)
To say that it was a tumultuous offseason between Deebo and the Niners would be a gross understatement! The former South Carolina star was the subject of many trade rumors before San Fran restructured his contract. Samuel wouldn’t be the first star wideout to underperform after not getting his way during a long preseason.
Samuel is still a bonafide stud, but we all know that he has split lots of targets with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The emergence of Jajuan Jennings could also mean less opportunities for Samuel in the passing game. Samuel caught 4 or less passes in 11 of his 18 games last season, so there’s some value on this Under!
The Niners passing game also draws a tough matchup against the Jets on Monday night. Robert Saleh’s squad is always sound on the defensive side of the ball and the secondary is one of their strengths. The Jets ranked 3rd in opponent completion percentage in 2023, so it could be tough night for Samuel.
Brock Purdy Under 21.5 Completions (-122)
This numbers looks to be about 2 completions too high, according to my projections. Purdy is a solid QB, but his median completions number was just 19 a year ago. He stayed under this total in 13 of his 16 regular season games.
Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind, but one thing that irks me about him is that he plays things way too conservatively. Even with all of the Niners’ weapons, they still only threw the ball 30 times per game last year (3rd fewest in the NFL).
Do we really think that Shanny is going to make any drastic changes to his play calling? As Al Boreland used to say on Home Improvement, “I don’t think so, Tim”. Purdy should have a decent game, but I look for him to top out at around 19 completions in this one.
Christian McCaffrey Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-105)
I just can’t resist this reduced juice over at DraftKings! McCaffrey’s median number of rushing attempts was 18 last season. He went Over this number in 5 straight games to open the 2023 campaign, and I don’t see the Niners reducing his usage all that much this season. That should especially be true now that Elijah Mitchell is no longer on the roster.
As good as the Jets defense is, their main weakness was stopping the run last season. They gave up 124 rushing yards per game in 2023, which only ranked 25th in the league. Look for Shanny to feed CMC to exploit this on Monday night. The former Stanford star went over this number in 12 of his 19 games last season.
Remember when we said that Shanny was a run-heavy play caller? The numbers definitely back up that claim in a big way. San Fran ran the ball 47.92% of the time last season, which was the 3rd most in the NFL. Look for a heavy dose of McCaffrey in this contest. Take the Over with confidence, fellow sports investors!
