One foot of paint cost Indiana a perfect season, but it has not cost the Hoosiers their place in the College Football Playoff picture. After a 19-15 loss to Ohio State in Bloomington that snapped a 22-game winning streak, Indiana is still projected to host a first-round playoff game, and the betting market still treats the defending national champions as the main challenger to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten.

The Hoosiers (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) were a 2.5-point home underdog to the No. 4 Buckeyes and trailed 19-7 early in the fourth quarter. Josh Hoover returned from a right arm injury to lead a 75-yard drive, hitting Nick Marsh from 19 yards out and finding Turbo Richard on the two-point try to make it 19-15. On Indiana’s final possession, Marsh got open in the front corner of the end zone, but his left foot came down on the out-of-bounds line. The catch did not count, and Ohio State held on.

Where Indiana Stands in the Playoff Picture

The loss came during one of the wildest weekends of the season. Five of the country’s top seven teams lost on the same Saturday, and ESPN’s latest Bubble Watch has Miami as the new No. 1 in its projection, the third different top team in three weeks. In that bracket, Indiana lands at No. 5, which would mean a first-round home game against No. 12 Boise State, the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. Ohio State sits at No. 2, and UCLA is the other Big Ten team projected into the field.

The remaining schedule helps. Indiana’s only game left against a currently ranked opponent is a Nov. 14 meeting with USC, and the Hoosiers visit Michigan this Saturday before that. A home playoff game is a real prize, since December crowds at Memorial Stadium would be a major edge, but a top-four seed and a first-round bye will likely require Indiana to win out.

ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State an 83.2 percent chance to reach the Big Ten championship game and Indiana 57.5 percent, which points toward a possible rematch. Ohio State’s win also gives it the head-to-head tiebreaker, so the Hoosiers may need help if the two finish with the same conference record. The Buckeyes did pay a price, as quarterback Julian Sayin left with an arm injury and is expected to miss at least several weeks. They have a bye week to regroup before facing USC.

What the Betting Market Says

For readers new to futures, a futures market is a wager settled later, such as who wins the national title or a conference. Odds with a plus sign, like +470, show the profit on a 100-unit stake, while a minus sign, like -130, shows how much you must risk to profit 100. Either number converts into an implied probability, and those prices move quickly after a chaotic weekend.

The market’s message after Week 7 is that Ohio State’s win mattered more than Sayin’s injury. In a sportsbook snapshot reported by Yahoo Sports, Ohio State is still the national championship favorite at +470, just ahead of Georgia at +480 and Notre Dame at +500, with Miami at +700. In the Big Ten title market, the Buckeyes are the favorite at -130, which implies roughly a 56.5 percent chance. Indiana is next at +280, followed by Oregon at +950 and unbeaten UCLA at +1100. Ohio State is also priced at -650 to make the playoff, the fourth-best number in the country behind Miami, Georgia and Notre Dame.

Those prices show oddsmakers do not view this as a collapse for Indiana. The Hoosiers lost by four points on the road to a top-five team on a play decided by inches, and they remain the clear second choice in the conference. Still, the loss changed the shape of the race, because Indiana now chases a team that holds the tiebreaker.

The Michigan Test and What Moves the Numbers Next

The next test is a noon kickoff Saturday at Michigan. Indiana is a 7-point road favorite in early lines, with a moneyline near -285 for the Hoosiers and +230 for the Wolverines, and a total of 41.5 points. ESPN’s FPI gives Indiana an 82 percent chance to win outright. Because Ohio State holds the tiebreaker, another slip in conference play would hurt both Indiana’s title odds and its playoff seeding.

Several factors could shift the futures board in the coming weeks. If Sayin’s absence stretches on, Ohio State’s national title price could lengthen despite the bye week. An Indiana win in Ann Arbor would likely strengthen its Big Ten number, while a loss would put the home playoff game in doubt. The first College Football Playoff rankings arrive Nov. 3, and the committee’s view of Indiana’s one-loss resume will show how realistic a first-round home game is.

For now, Indiana is still in the projected playoff field, still the second choice in the Big Ten futures market, and still has a manageable path to a December home game. One foot out of bounds changed the standings, but it did not end the Hoosiers’ repeat bid.