How to Bet a UFC Fight Night Card: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Picks (May 16, 2026)

UFC Fight Night comes to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, May 16, 2026, with a featherweight main event that offers a perfect case study for anyone learning how to bet on mixed martial arts. Arnold Allen (-180) takes on Melquizael Costa (+149), and while the betting market clearly favors Allen, the underlying numbers tell a more interesting story. Before we get to the pick, let’s walk through exactly how to read a UFC Fight Night card from a betting perspective.

Understanding UFC Fight Odds

The first thing you need to understand is how moneyline odds work in MMA. American odds use a plus or minus sign followed by a number, and that number tells you how much risk versus reward is involved in a bet.

A negative number like -180 (Allen’s odds) means you have to bet $180 to win $100. A positive number like +149 (Costa’s odds) means a $100 bet returns $149 in profit. The minus side is always the favorite; the plus side is always the underdog. The bigger the gap between the two numbers, the more one-sided the oddsmakers think the fight is. In this case, the market gives Allen roughly a 64% implied probability of winning, and Costa about 40%. Those two numbers don’t add up to 100% because the extra percentage is the sportsbook’s built-in edge.

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How to Evaluate the Fighters: Striking, Grappling, and Records

Once you understand the odds, the real work begins: figuring out whether those odds are accurate. For MMA, there are four main areas to assess — striking output, striking accuracy, grappling ability, and overall record in context.

Arnold Allen (20-4) is a 32-year-old English featherweight ranked 16th in the UFC. He’s a technical striker with excellent movement and strong defensive grappling. His significant strikes land at a rate of 3.47 per minute at 44.94% accuracy. Those are respectable numbers. He’s the kind of fighter who controls the pace, doesn’t get reckless, and tends to win by accumulation rather than finishing explosively.

Melquizael Costa (26-7) is a 29-year-old Brazilian ranked 17th. His numbers are genuinely striking: he throws significantly more shots at 4.38 significant strikes per minute and connects at a much higher rate of 59.40% accuracy. His grappling is also more active, averaging 2.00 takedown attempts per fight with a submission average of 1.09. Costa is the more aggressive, higher-output fighter of the two. He’s younger, throws more, lands more of what he throws, and has the grappling tools to win from multiple positions.

What Makes a Value Bet in MMA

Here’s where it gets interesting. A value bet is a wager where the true probability of something happening is higher than what the odds imply. The odds on Allen suggest about a 64% chance he wins. But independent Elo-based models and analytical ranking systems actually favor Costa in this matchup, projecting his win probability around 60 to 61%. That’s a meaningful discrepancy.

The market is pricing Allen as a significant favorite based largely on his familiarity and UFC tenure. Costa’s striking efficiency and output numbers don’t support that kind of spread. When the math says one thing and the odds say another, that’s exactly where value hides.

That’s what makes Costa at +149 a genuine value play. You’re getting paid nearly 1.5 to 1 on a fighter that a credible model thinks is the more likely winner. You don’t find that kind of edge often on main events.

The Rest of the Main Card

The undercard for UFC Vegas 117 has some solid matchups worth watching. In the co-main event, Dooho Choi (16-4-1) — known as the Korean Superboy for his exciting, all-action style — takes on Daniel Santos (14-2) in another featherweight bout. Choi has a reputation for putting on fights regardless of the outcome, so this one should be entertaining.

The bantamweight bout between Malcolm Wellmaker (10-1) and Juan Diaz (15-1-1) features two fighters with strong records and finishing ability. Wellmaker has been on a tear and this is a good test of his ceiling. Light heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas (19-7) faces Christian Edwards (8-4), and the middleweight contest pits Cody Brundage (11-9-1) against Andre Petroski (13-6).

UFC Fight Night May 16 Picks

Here are the picks for the May 16 card at the Meta APEX, with the main event offering the clearest value on the board.

Main Event: Melquizael Costa (+149) is the play. His striking output, accuracy advantage, and grappling versatility give him multiple ways to win this fight. The models back him at closer to 60% probability, meaning the +149 price significantly undervalues his chances. This is a textbook value bet — an underdog the market has mispriced.

Parlay consideration: If you’re building a parlay, Costa’s moneyline at +149 is a strong anchor. At that price, he adds real value to a ticket without needing to stack multiple heavy favorites. If you haven’t already claimed one, a BetMGM promo code can give you extra funds to work with for a card like this.

Prelims kick off at 5:00 PM ET on Paramount+, with the main card starting at 8:00 PM ET. The Meta APEX in Enterprise, Nevada is the UFC’s home base for Fight Night events, and it consistently delivers high-energy crowds for the fighters on the card. Set a line, stick to it, and let the value do the work.