Heisman Odds Shift: Darian Mensah Takes Over as Favorite After Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State Fall to USC

Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is the new betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after Ohio State’s 30-18 loss at USC on Oct. 31 knocked wide receiver Jeremiah Smith out of the top spot. Mensah’s odds shortened from +290 to roughly +156 at the start of the week, and most books now list him between +150 and +160, with Smith sitting behind him and teammate Malachi Toney.

The timing sets up a high-stakes Week 10. Mensah and the No. 1 Hurricanes (8-0) travel to South Bend on Saturday night to face Notre Dame, a game that could either cement Mensah as the clear frontrunner or send the market scrambling again.

How Ohio State’s Loss Reshaped the Heisman Board

Smith entered the weekend as the favorite and did his part statistically. He caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a late touchdown against USC, and that score gave him 40 career receiving touchdowns, a new Big Ten record that passed Braylon Edwards. He now has 62 catches, 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

The problem was everything around him. It was Ohio State’s first game without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, who is reportedly out for the regular season, and true freshman Luke Fahey struggled as the second-ranked Buckeyes dropped to 6-2. USC jumped out to a 14-3 first-quarter lead behind quarterback Jayden Maiava and never trailed. With Smith’s production tied so closely to the passing game, the market treated the loss as a real threat to his candidacy. Ohio State still has Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan left, and every one of those opponents has a good defense.

Smith has slipped to between +275 and +325 depending on the book, according to odds reported over the weekend, putting him level with or just behind Toney.

Why Mensah Is the Favorite

Mensah, a transfer who previously played at Tulane and Duke, threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in Miami’s 38-35 win over North Carolina. He has 2,425 passing yards this season, 25 touchdown passes against a single interception, and an 80.7 percent completion rate. His 90.3 QBR leads the country. Against the blitz, he has completed 58 of 66 passes for 15 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Toney, his top target, caught seven passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns against the Tar Heels. That gave him 13 receiving touchdowns in eight games, tying Leonard Hankerson’s school single-season record. He now has 73 catches for 1,027 yards, and odds around +300 make him the second choice. Because the two are so closely linked, a big Miami night helps both of their cases.

What Futures Odds Mean for Newer Bettors

A Heisman bet is a futures bet, meaning you wager on an outcome that will not be decided until December. Odds like +160 show how much you would win on a $100 bet if that player wins the award, so a $100 wager at +160 would return $160 in profit plus your original stake. The lower the number, the more likely the market thinks the outcome is. Odds also imply a probability: +160 works out to about 38 percent, though sportsbooks build in a margin, so the combined percentages across all players add up to more than 100.

That is why a single result can move these numbers so much. Futures prices reflect both how a player is performing and the schedule still in front of him, and they update after every game week.

Week 10: Notre Dame Is the Test

The market sees Saturday’s matchup as a toss-up with a slight lean toward the home team. Notre Dame is a roughly five-point favorite, and BetMGM listed the Irish at -220 on the moneyline against +180 for Miami, with a total of 57.5 points. Miami won last year’s meeting 27-24.

One analyst’s Heisman rankings framed the stakes bluntly: a Miami win could push Mensah toward -200 odds, while a loss could send him back toward the +2000 range. Those are one writer’s projections, not posted prices, but they show how sharp the swing could be on a single result. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is fourth on the board at about +1275 with 18 touchdown passes and one interception on the season, and he could become a major factor if the Irish win. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is next at about +1500 and hosts No. 2 Georgia the same night.

For newer bettors, the main takeaway is that a futures price rarely stays still. Odds that look short today can lengthen quickly after one bad game, and longer prices on contenders like Carr exist precisely because they need a specific result to climb. Futures are also a long-term commitment, with four weeks left in the regular season, so it helps to size any wager with that waiting period in mind and never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Kickoff between Miami and Notre Dame is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, and the Heisman market will almost certainly look different by Sunday morning.