Georgia Takes No. 1 in AP Top 25 as Oregon Drops Out: What the Poll Shuffle Means for College Football Playoff Odds

Georgia is back on top of college football. The Bulldogs moved to No. 1 in the Associated Press Top 25 on Sunday, October 11, claiming 66 of 70 first-place votes after a 20-17 win at Alabama, and the shuffle behind them has already started to reshape the national title and College Football Playoff futures market.

It is the first time Georgia has held the top spot since September 2024, and it came at the end of a Week 6 that ripped through the rankings. Texas, the previous No. 1, lost to Oklahoma 27-24 in the Red River Rivalry, while Oregon lost to UCLA 17-15 and fell out of the poll entirely.

Georgia, Notre Dame and Miami Lead a Reshuffled Poll

Georgia’s win in Tuscaloosa was its first regular-season victory over Alabama since 2007 and Kirby Smart’s first win there as the Bulldogs’ head coach. Quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for 249 yards and a touchdown and added a rushing score, while Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120 yards. The Bulldogs are 6-0 overall and 4-0 in SEC play.

Notre Dame moved up one spot to No. 2 after a 58-7 rout of Stanford, its highest ranking since finishing No. 2 in the final poll of the 2024 season. Miami is No. 3, followed by Ohio State at No. 4 and Indiana at No. 5, with Indiana’s narrow road win at Nebraska earning a two-spot promotion. Alabama slipped to No. 6 and Texas dropped six places to No. 7. Notre Dame and Miami had not been together in the top three since November 1993.

The bottom of the poll saw plenty of movement too. LSU fell from No. 10 to No. 22, while Oregon, Florida and Pitt all dropped out. Oregon entered the season at No. 2, its highest preseason ranking ever, and now sits at 3-2 and unranked for the first time in four years. The Ducks have not lost two of their first five games since the 2016 team.

What the Futures Market Is Saying About the Playoff Race

The poll and the betting market do not agree on everything. Ohio State remains the national title favorite at +360 on FanDuel and +400 on DraftKings, even though the Buckeyes sit fourth in the AP poll. On FanDuel, Georgia is priced at +490 to win the national championship, third on the board behind Ohio State and Notre Dame in the pricing referenced by The Athletic, and the Bulldogs have become clear favorites to win the SEC, with minus-money odds that imply better than a 50 percent chance.

Alabama is the odd case. Despite losing at home, the Crimson Tide’s odds actually improved slightly, and FanDuel lists them at +850 to win the title. The market appears to treat a three-point defeat to the new No. 1 as a sign of strength rather than a flaw, and the 12-team format means a single loss does not close the door on an at-large bid.

Texas took the biggest hit. The Longhorns were not title favorites before the loss, and they now trail Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami, as well as Alabama on FanDuel, at +1000 to win it all. Arch Manning threw two interceptions against Oklahoma, including a pick-six and a late pick that set up the Sooners’ winning field goal, and Oklahoma scored 10 points off those turnovers.

The picture for simply reaching the 12-team field is more settled. According to FanDuel’s playoff odds, Notre Dame is the strongest at -10000, followed by Georgia at -5000, Miami at -2000, Ohio State at -900, Indiana at -650 and Alabama at -550. Georgia’s number moved it ahead of Miami as the second most likely team to make the field. Texas sits in its own tier at -290, still favored to make the Playoff but with a path to missing it that looks more realistic than it did a week ago.

Week 7 Lines Test the New Hierarchy

The next round of games will show whether the market is right about the new order. Georgia hosts Auburn on Saturday, October 17, at 3:30 p.m. ET as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5, according to CBS Sports. Notre Dame travels to No. 8 BYU as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5, and Miami is a 21.5-point favorite at home against Florida State.

The marquee matchup is No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana at noon ET. ESPN lists the Buckeyes as 3.5-point favorites, with a moneyline of Ohio State -180 and Indiana +150 and a total of 51.5, while the Football Power Index projection puts Ohio State’s win probability at just 52 percent. The result could swing the title board more than any other game on the slate.

Texas hosts Florida as a 10.5-point favorite, with the Gators priced at +330 on the moneyline, and LSU is a double-digit favorite at home against Mississippi State. Alabama visits Tennessee as an underdog of 8.5 points, a spot where another loss would test how far the market’s patience for the Crimson Tide extends.

For futures bettors, the main takeaway is that a No. 1 ranking and a favorite’s price are not the same thing. Georgia has the poll and the SEC edge, Ohio State still holds the shortest title price, and Texas and Alabama are the programs whose numbers have the most room to move depending on how Week 7 plays out.