Thursday Night Football in Week 4 will see the Miami Dolphins traveling to Cincinnati to face the defending AFC champion Bengals. The Dolphins could not be riding a bigger wave of momentum into this week if they had dreamt it.
After their improbable come-from-behind miracle victory in Baltimore, Miami held off the Buffalo Bills’ juggernaut of an offense at home and is now the only undefeated AFC Team through three weeks. Miami has awakened an offense of their own in 2022, with both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill having hauled in over 300 receiving yards already.
The Bengals, who entered the 2022 season with mixed expectations following their deep playoff run in 2021, are coming off their first victory of the season against the Jets and return home for the first time since Week 1.
The 15 sacks they’ve allowed to opponents this season are tied for most in the NFL. Joe Burrow is in desperate need of some protection to be able to distribute the ball to his talented group of pass catchers.
Miami has allowed the second-most passing yards of any NFL team this season and has managed six sacks through the first three weeks.
The Dolphins opened the week as 1-point underdogs, but that number has extended to 3.5 at some books as of Thursday morning. The total for the game sits at 48 after opening at 48.5. Now that both teams have properly been introduced, let’s move on to our 4 favorite player prop bets for Dolphins at Bengals.
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Hayden Hurst UNDER 27.5 Receiving Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Hurst has made an impact for the Bengals as the lead tight end in an offense with three strong receivers. He’s garnered 17 targets through three weeks and hauled in 12 of those for catches.
The trouble with this line is that his best game has been 8 targets, 5 catches, and 46 yards receiving. He’s been used as a short-yardage, move-the-chains kind of tight end and is averaging 7 yards per catch in those three games.
His target-share dropped in their third game against the Jets to 5.5% and he’s also managed to have less than 26.5 yards receiving in a game where he had 5 catches. Even if Hurst’s targets rise back to the 5-7 range, we don’t see him going over this total.
Raheem Mostert UNDER 39.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -110 at BetMGM
Mostert has games of five carries for 16 yards and eight carries for 11 yards so far this season. His best effort was 51 yards on 11 carries against Baltimore in Week 2.
That said, there is no indication that he’ll get the carries or the running lanes consistently enough to warrant a prop total of 13.5 yards higher than his season average. This should be an easy Under!
Joe Burrow UNDER 291.5 Combined Pass+ Rush Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Burrow has thrown the ball 125 times in three games, and 53 of those came in Week 1’s OT loss to Pittsburgh. He’s attempted 36 passes each of the last two weeks and would have gone under this total in both games against the Cowboys and Jets.
His passing yard total is 276.5, and his rushing yard total is 11.5, yet this prop is set significantly higher than the combination of the two. We’ll capitalize on some value here and take Burrow to go under this total.
Sprinkle of the Week: Miami D/ST Anytime TD Scorer
Best Available Odds: +650 at DraftKings
Miami has some of the most talented pass rushers and defensive backs in the NFL, and this leaves a team with a weak offensive line vulnerable to turnovers. We’ll take a flyer on the Dolphins’ defense and special teams to find the end zone in a twist to this week’s TNF game.
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