Dallas Stars vs. Philadelphia Flyers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Dallas Stars with their 25-13-1 record face off against the Philadelphia Flyers and their 17-19-5 record tonight at the Wells Fargo Center. This nationally televised game brings us an interesting matchup, with the Stars as -165 favorites on the moneyline and the Flyers at +140 odds. The over/under is set at 6.5 goals which leads us to believe this might just be a high-scoring game, but we’ll get into the details.

Stars Are Rolling, Flyers Struggling

The Dallas Stars enter tonight’s game looking great. They’ve won 5 straight games, including an intense 5-4 victory over the Rangers just a couple of nights ago. Their balanced attack has been led by Jason Robertson who has 22 assists this season and Matt Duchene, who’s recorded 38 points overall. Jake Oettinger has been pretty solid between the pipes boasting 20 wins and a respectable .908 save percentage.

The Flyers, on the other hand, have dropped 3 of their last 4 games which includes back to back losses to one of the best teams in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Travis Konecny has been their big star performer this season, but inconsistent goaltending and a fairly shaky defense that is ranked 29th in goals against continue to plague Philadelphia.

So far, it’s easy to see why the Stars are the favorites heading into this game. They’re a well-balanced team that is finding the back of the net while limiting the opponent’s goals. They’re not overpowering, but they’re getting the job done on both sides of the ice.

Key Metrics and Trends

Before we load up our bet slips for this game there are a few things we want to take a closer look at.

• Goals Scored and Defense. Dallas ranks 12th in goals scored with 127 and 2nd in goals allowed with 99. That is the definition of efficiency. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 16th in scoring and near the bottom of the league at 29th in goals against with 145 on the season.
• Special Teams. The Stars’ penalty kill is unquestionably in the elite category. Their PK unit has an 84.8% rate which is good for 2nd in the NHL. The Flyers, however, have shown they are vulnerable on the power play at 14.9% which puts them at 29th. This is a huge imbalance which we think will tilt the game heavily in favor of the Stars.
• Form and Momentum. Dallas is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, while the Flyers are just 3-6-1 in that span. That just means the Stars, who are already a high-powered team, are smoking hot right now whereas the Flyers are on a pretty big slide.

With Dallas firing on all cylinders and Philadelphia struggling in multiple areas, the edge clearly goes to the Stars and there’s no question about that. 

Prediction and Best Bet

The Dallas Stars have a strong defensive structure. They know how to limit shots and goals while still getting enough goals to get the wins. They have an efficient penalty kill, and even better goaltending, making them the clear favorite.

The Flyers’ struggles on special teams and their inconsistent form against strong teams like Dallas only add to their challenges heading into tonight’s game.

• Best Bet: Take Dallas -1.5 on the puck line (+145)

The Stars’ firepower and defensive edge should lead them to an easy multi-goal win in Philly tonight. We are also leaning toward the Under 6.5 total goals, given Oettinger’s reliability and Philadelphia’s offensive inconsistency. The bar is set high for the total and it might just be a bit much for both of these teams to clear.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Flyers 2.