Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever Prediction: Fever Should Roll Behind Clark and Mitchell

Connecticut is playing out the string, and Indiana is playing like a team that just found its footing at the perfect time.

Quick take:

• Pick: Indiana Fever -17.5
• Why: The Sun are down two starting bigs, own the league’s worst offense, and just got run off the floor by 25 points two nights ago.
• The number to watch: Indiana’s 96.6 points per game, the best mark in the WNBA.

The Fever (25-14) host the Connecticut Sun (10-28) Friday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference on the line for Indiana and nothing but pride left to play for on the other side. Connecticut has already been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, and it shows — the Sun have dropped four of their last six and just lost 89-64 to Golden State on Wednesday.

Indiana, meanwhile, is rolling. Caitlin Clark dropped 37 points in a 113-90 blowout of Chicago last Sunday, and the Fever have scored 100-plus points in 18 games this season. This is about as lopsided a matchup as the WNBA schedule offers down the stretch.

Why the Spread Is Sitting Near 17

Books opened Indiana around 16.5 and the number has crept up to 17.5 in some markets, with Fever moneyline prices as steep as -2000 and Connecticut sitting near +920 to +1000. Check the latest betting odds before tip-off, since lines like this can keep moving. The total has settled around 178.5. That’s about as confident as a betting market gets in a non-playoff-race spot, and it’s not hard to see why — Indiana beat this same Sun team 123-88 back on July 22, and Connecticut’s roster is even more banged up now than it was then.

Recent Form

The gap between these two teams shows up everywhere you look, from the box score to the injury report.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Clark’s Back, Mitchell’s Heat Check, and Connecticut’s Depleted Frontcourt

Clark is listed as probable with a back issue that has nagged her on and off all season, but the Fever have said she carries no restrictions and is expected to play through it. She’s averaging 22.1 points and 8.3 assists this year, and she’s coming off one of her best shooting nights of the season — 13-of-24 from the floor with eight made threes against Chicago. Alongside her, Kelsey Mitchell has quietly put together a career year, averaging a career-best 24.8 points per game on 51% shooting and 45.5% from three, and she torched the Sun for 30 points in her last look at them.

Connecticut is trying to survive without both of its centers. Brittney Griner and Olivia Nelson-Ododa are each dealing with knee issues and are questionable at best, which leaves a frontcourt led by Aneesah Morrow, who’s averaging 8.9 rebounds a game but doesn’t offer the same rim protection or scoring punch. Guard Leila Lacan is also out. A team that already ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring at 78.8 points per game now has to try to slow down the WNBA’s most explosive offense without its two biggest bodies.

Indiana has scored 100 or more points in 18 games this season — Connecticut has allowed 100-plus five times in its last 12.

That collision course points in one direction. When the Fever get out in transition behind Clark and Mitchell, and Connecticut can’t match size inside, these games have a tendency to get away from the Sun fast, and the July meeting is Exhibit A. Indiana’s bench also has more juice with Aliyah Boston anchoring the interior on both ends, which only widens the margin against a Sun team already scraping for frontcourt minutes.

There’s a small counterpoint. Connecticut did just beat Chicago 87-81 on Tuesday, showing some life, and blowout losses can occasionally trigger a more competitive response the next time out. But that Chicago win came against a team playing out its own string, not a motivated No. 2 seed defending home court.

Prediction and Best Bet

Indiana’s size, shooting, and health advantage are simply too much for a Sun team missing multiple frontcourt pieces and playing for nothing but draft positioning. Expect Clark and Mitchell to control the pace early and Indiana’s depth to pull away by the fourth quarter.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Indiana Fever 98, Connecticut Sun 76
2. Best Bet: Indiana Fever -17.5

Backing the Fever to cover isn’t glamorous, but it’s the side the numbers, the injury report, and the recent head-to-head all point toward.