Commanders at Bengals: Betting Odds, Predictions, and 2 Player Props for Monday Night Football
The NFL is kind enough to give us a Monday Night Football doubleheader on September 23. In this piece, we’ll break down the Commanders at Bengals matchup. Can Cincinnati get up off the mat after a dreadful 0-2 start?
Will Washington figure out a way to pull off the upset as large underdogs on the road? Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so, as most online sportsbooks have installed the Bengals as a 7.5-point favorite. The total is currently sitting at 47.5 at most shops.
Before we get to my prediction for this game, let’s examine 2 player props that have quite a bit of value. Good luck with all of your action and enjoy the game! Let’s get to the plays!
Terry McLaurin Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This number at Fanatics was simply too good to pass up! The rest of the market has this prop priced at 47.5, so we’ll gladly pounce on the Under. Saving three yards may not sound too important, but it gives us around a 5.9% edge against the prevailing number of 47.5.
T-Mac is still the best wideout on this Commanders team, but he has a couple of things going against him in this spot. For one, he and rookie QB Jayden Daniels have yet to really click this season. Sure, McLaurin got more targets last week against the Giants, but he still racked up just 22 receiving yards.
Secondly, I like how Cam Taylor-Britt matches up against McLaurin. Taylor-Britt has really come into his own this season, as evidenced by his PFF grade of 83.5. The former Nebraska standout has enough speed to hang with McLaurin the entire ball game. Give me the Under!
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
I’m trying my best to stay away from Overs, since the books often shade their lines in that direction by a few percentage points. That said, B-Rob should have a phenomenal game against this Bengals defensive line. The former Alabama star is coming off a great performance against the G-Men where he ran for 133 yards.
Let’s get back to the Bengals D-line issues. Cincy has been riddled with injuries to its front 7, as Sheldon Rankins, BJ Hill, and Kris Jenkins are all listed as questionable for this game. Washington’s o-line should be able to get plenty of push against a lot of Cincinnati backups.
My projection says that Robinson’s rushing yardage line should be around 58.5 or so. Robinson’s rushing attempts line is 12.5 but juiced to the Over, so we’ll assume he gets 13 carries in this one. At that rate, Robinson will only need to average 4 yards per carry to hit this Over. I’ll take that bet!
Prediction for Washington at Cincinnati
I don’t play too many NFL sides because it’s one of the most efficient gambling markets in the world. The sportsbooks are usually spot on with their numbers, so it’s tough to find any semblance of value. That said, if I had to play a side, I’d take the +7.5 with the Commanders in this one.
Washington hasn’t looked all that great to start the season, but I think Daniels will continue to improve at QB as the season goes on. Cincinnati fought hard against Kansas City last week, but the massive number of injuries along their D-line should give Washington an edge with their running game.
The Commanders are averaging 5.4 yards per rush, which ranks 6th in the NFL. Anytime I can get an underdog that can the run the football, I’m interested. Cincy may win the game, but 7.5 is too many points.
Prediction: Bengals 24 – Commanders 20
Mike Noblin
Senior Sports Betting Contributor
Mike Noblin is a seasoned handicapper and the lead sports betting author at Hello Rookie. Mike has been involved with the industry for two decades, and has worked as a full time analyst and writer for the past three years. He covers a wide variety of sports, including the NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball, and MLB.
