Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Tampa Bay Lightning return home to Amalie Arena and they’re looking to build on their recent success as they take on the Columbus Blue Jackets in a pivotal Eastern Conference showdown.

Tampa Bay is the clear favorite in this one. They’re sitting at -170 on the ML, while Columbus comes in as a +142 underdog. Given the success of these 2 teams, we were expecting the odds to be a bit closer on this.

With the puck dropping at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+, and both teams fighting for playoff positioning, this matchup is going to be a big one. Both teams will come out swinging as they know what’s on the line.

The Lightning have been one of the stronger home teams this season. Their recent form shows that they could continue that trend. They have won 4 of their last 5 games which includes some impressive defensive efforts against Calgary and Edmonton. In fact, in their last 5 games, they’ve only allowed 4 goals and one was a shutout win against Calgary.

The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, are on a solid run of their own though not as hot as the Lightning. They have won 3 straight games while averaging 4+ goals per game over the last 5. Sure, Columbus has struggled defensively at times this season, which could be a major concern against a Lightning team that boasts some of the most elite scoring talent.

Lightning’s Defense and Goaltending Provide a Key Edge

Tampa Bay’s defensive play has been a major reason for their success this season and just looking at their scores, it’s easy to see why.

They are allowing just 2.62 goals per game, a number that ranks them 5th best in the league. The play of Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net has been one of the biggest factors in that. He enters this game with a solid 29-16-3 record, an eye-watering 2.18 goals-against average, and a stellar .924 save percentage, which puts him among the top goaltenders in the NHL. He has been even stronger in recent weeks, and if he continues that form, the Blue Jackets could have a tough time finding the back of the net just like every other team. He’s definitely a contender for the Vezina Award.

On the other side of the ice, Columbus has relied heavily on Elvis Merzlikins, who has a 22-14-4 record with a respectable 2.97 goals-against average and a .897 save percentage. While he has shown a few flashes of brilliance between the pipes, his numbers pale in comparison to Vasilevskiy’s, and against an offensive powerhouse like the Lightning, he will need to be at his absolute best to give Columbus a fighting chance in tonight’s game.

The Blue Jackets’ defense has allowed 3.28 goals per game, which isn’t great but not terrible, and their PK unit has been shaky, which could be a major issue against Tampa Bay’s high-powered attack and power play unit.

Can Columbus Keep Up with Tampa Bay’s Offense?

The Lightning’s offensive firepower is another reason they come in as the favorites.

Nikita Kucherov has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He leads the team with a hefty 87 points, including 27 goals and 60 assists. His ability to control the game, create high-danger scoring opportunities, and make an impact on special teams play makes him one of the most dangerous players in the league. Alongside him is another major threat, Brayden Point. He has been a consistent goal scorer, finding the back of the net 32 times this season.

Columbus, however, has some offensive weapons of their own that we can’t overlook.

Zach Werenski has been the team’s best all-around player. He leads the Jackets with 64 points and anchors the defense. He has added 18 goals and 46 assists to the stat sheet which just goes to show his ability to make plays at both ends of the ice.

Kirill Marchenko has been the team’s most effective goal scorer. He’s put up 24 goals, including multiple power-play markers. If Columbus is going to have a shot at pulling off the upset, they will need a big performance from both of these powerhouses.

The problem for the Blue Jackets is that, while they have shown flashes of a strong offense, their consistency has been an issue. They can be a bit streaky at times and have struggled against top-tier defenses. Unfortunately for them, Tampa Bay will provide a major test. 

The Lightning not only have an elite goalie in Vasilevskiy, but they also have a defense that has been strong at shutting down top scorers with blocks and hits.

Prediction and Best Bet

Tampa Bay has the advantage in nearly every key category.

They have a far better netminder, a more consistent defense, and an offense that has proven over and over it can score against anyone — even the best of teams.

Columbus has been playing well and we don’t want to minimize that, but their defensive lapses could be costly in this matchup. The Blue Jackets have given up an average of 3.28 goals per game, and against a team like the Lightning, that is a dangerous number to have in the books.

The Blue Jackets won the first meeting back in November, but the Lightning won the most recent meeting 5-3, and that game showed everyone just how difficult it is for Columbus to slow down Tampa Bay’s attack. With Kucherov and Point leading the way, the Lightning should be able to generate more than enough scoring chances. If Vasilevskiy continues his strong play, which we don’t think he’ll slow down one bit, Columbus will have trouble keeping pace.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Lightning 4, Blue Jackets 2
• Best Bet: Lightning -1.5

We expect the Lightning to control the game for all 60 minutes and take care of business on home ice. A 4-2 Tampa Bay win seems like the most likely outcome, and the best bet here is Lightning -1.5 at +140. Tampa Bay should be able to take full advantage of Columbus’ defensive struggles, and with Vasilevskiy in net, covering the puck line looks like a strong play.