Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun Prediction: Sky’s Size Advantage Should Cover the Spread

Connecticut is playing out the string with half its frontcourt in street clothes, and Chicago is the team built to make them pay for it.

Quick take:

• Pick: Chicago Sky -5.5
• Why: The Sun are down to a skeleton crew up front and just lost by 36 to Indiana’s mirror opponent while Chicago’s interior size goes unanswered
• The number to watch: Kamilla Cardoso’s 8.8 rebounds per game against a Sun frontline missing three bigs

Chicago (15-23) is already eliminated from playoff contention, but that hasn’t stopped the Sky from playing meaningful basketball down the stretch — they’ve won five of their last eight before Saturday’s 113-90 blowout loss to Indiana snapped the momentum. Connecticut (9-27) has nothing to play for except pride, sitting seventh and last in the East with a 2-8 mark over its last 10 games and a 9-27 record that’s the worst in the conference.

These two have already met once this season, and it wasn’t close for three quarters before Chicago turned it into a laugher. This second and final meeting of the year comes with the Sun even shorter-handed than they were back in July, and that’s the entire ballgame here.

Why the Number Keeps Climbing at Mohegan Sun

Chicago opened as roughly a 5.5-point favorite and the line has crept as high as -6.5 at some books, with the moneyline settling in the -210 to -220 range and Connecticut sitting out near +180 to +192. That’s the market pricing in Connecticut’s growing injury list more than anything Chicago has shown lately — the Sky are actually just 5-5 in their last 10 games themselves, including Saturday’s ugly loss to Indiana. The total sits at 168.5, a number that’s split close to even across recent Sky games, six of their last nine finishing under it. Bettors weighing a spread play here can check the betting calculator to see how a Sky cover at -5.5 or -6.5 shakes out against the moneyline price.

Recent Form

Neither team is trending the way its record from a month ago suggested, but Connecticut’s slide has been steeper and is now compounded by injuries at the exact position Chicago can exploit.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Connecticut’s Frontcourt Problem Is Chicago’s Opening

The Sun will be without Brittney Griner (knee) and Aaliyah Edwards (ankle), both officially out, while Rayah Marshall remains out on a coach’s decision and Olivia Nelson-Ododa is questionable with a knee issue of her own. That’s four bigs compromised heading into a game against a Chicago team that lives around the rim. Kamilla Cardoso is averaging 14.7 points and 8.8 rebounds a game and has feasted on Connecticut before — she dropped 26 points, including 18 in the fourth quarter alone, when these teams met on July 30, erasing a 14-point deficit in the process.

Sydney Taylor has quietly given Chicago a second scoring option late in the year, averaging 14.5 points a game since stepping into a bigger role, and she had 14 points and six assists in that same July win over Connecticut. Her efficiency has been a big reason the Sky have stayed competitive even after falling out of the playoff race — a team with nothing left to play for that’s still finding secondary scoring is exactly the kind of matchup problem a depleted Connecticut roster doesn’t need right now.

On the other side, DiJonai Carrington remains Connecticut’s best two-way piece, but she can’t guard both ends of the floor by herself against a Sky team that will pound the ball inside repeatedly. Natasha Cloud leads Chicago in assists at 5.0 per game and has been the steadying hand in transition, which matters against a Sun defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in points allowed per possession over its recent losing skid.

Cardoso scored 18 of her 26 points in the fourth quarter of Chicago’s comeback win over this exact opponent five weeks ago.

That late-game surge matters here. Connecticut has shown a pattern of fading in the fourth quarter of close games this season, and without their two biggest rim protectors available, foul trouble and fatigue could compound quickly if Chicago keeps feeding Cardoso early.

Chicago’s own inconsistency is the counterargument. The Sky just got run off the floor by Indiana and have alternated wins and losses for stretches of August. But losing to a 25-14 Fever team on the second night of a back-to-back is a different animal than facing a Connecticut roster that’s lost two straight and is now down multiple frontcourt starters.

Chicago has also shown it can win ugly. Wins over Golden State and New York earlier this month came in low-scoring, grind-it-out fashion — exactly the style that should suit them here if Connecticut can’t generate easy points inside without its top two rim protectors. That’s the version of the Sky that shows up when the roster is playing for something more than draft positioning, even with the postseason already out of reach.

Prediction and Best Bet

Chicago’s size advantage was already the deciding factor in the first meeting, and it only gets more lopsided with Griner and Edwards out again. Look for Cardoso to control the paint from the opening tip and for Chicago’s bench scoring to pull this one away in the second half.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Chicago Sky 86, Connecticut Sun 74
2. Best Bet: Chicago Sky -5.5

With Connecticut’s frontcourt gutted and Chicago’s best player already having torched this exact matchup once, the value is on the Sky covering comfortably rather than just squeaking by.