Cardinals vs. Yankees Prediction: St. Louis Looks for Series Win in the Bronx

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and half their rotation on the injured list, and the Cardinals just hung 13 runs on them two nights ago — so why is New York still favored in the Bronx?

Quick take:

• Pick: Cardinals +1.5
• Why: St. Louis is rolling with momentum and a road-tested rotation piece in Kyle Leahy against a Yankees lineup that’s missing its two biggest bats
• The number to watch: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have combined for zero plate appearances in this series

St. Louis (56-57) heads into the series finale at Yankee Stadium after blowing a six-run lead and still winning 13-7 on Monday, with Alec Burleson launching three separate two-run homers in a wild eighth-inning comeback. New York (63-50) is still second in the AL East and holding a playoff spot, but this version of the Yankees looks nothing like the team that opened the season as World Series favorites.

Judge has been out since early June with a stress fracture in his rib, Stanton hasn’t played since late April with a calf strain, and the rotation has been without Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt for extended stretches. That’s a lot of talent watching from the injured list while a scrappy Cardinals club that’s fighting to stay in the NL Central race comes to town smelling blood.

New York is still 5 games back in the AL East but comfortably ahead in the Wild Card picture, so there’s little urgency to rush anyone back before they’re ready. That patience makes sense long-term, but it leaves manager Aaron Boone piecing together a lineup night to night. St. Louis, on the other hand, is fighting for its playoff life in a crowded NL Central and has nothing to lose by pushing hard in a getaway game against a team dealing with more absences than they are.

Why Vegas Still Trusts the Yankees

Even shorthanded, New York opened as a solid favorite for Wednesday’s finale, with the line sitting around -152 on the moneyline and the Yankees giving up 1.5 runs on the spread. The total is set at 8.5, reflecting two lineups that have combined for 20 runs over the first two games of this series. Anyone tracking the live MLB odds board has watched this number move throughout the day as bettors continue to back the Yankees. Books are clearly still respecting the Yankee Stadium home-field factor and Will Warren’s recent form on the mound, even with the offense down two of its most feared hitters.

Recent Form

Both clubs have had turbulent stretches over the last two weeks, but the underlying data tells a clearer story about who’s trending in the right direction heading into Wednesday night.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Leahy vs. Warren Is Closer Than the Records Suggest

Kyle Leahy gets the ball for St. Louis carrying a 7-4 record and an ERA in the mid-3.70s across 18 starts, with 75 strikeouts and a track record of keeping the Cardinals in games even when the offense goes quiet. He’s been especially sharp over his last several outings, working deep into games and limiting hard contact against lineups that, on paper, look far more dangerous than the shorthanded version of the Yankees he’ll face Wednesday.

Will Warren counters for New York at 8-5 with a 4.14 ERA, and his surface numbers look fine, but he’s been homer-prone this year and the Cardinals just spent two nights proving they can do damage against pitching mistakes. St. Louis is 8-4 this season in games where Pallante or Leahy has started as an underdog on the moneyline, a trend worth noting given where the number sits for this one.

Alec Burleson has three home runs in the last two games of this series alone.

That kind of power surge from the middle of the Cardinals order changes the math on a Yankees pitching staff that’s already stretched thin. New York’s bullpen has had to soak up extra innings with Fried, Rodón, and Schmidt unavailable, and fatigue compounds fast in August series like this one.

The lineup gap matters just as much. Without Judge and Stanton, the Yankees are leaning heavily on Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and a rebuilt infield to generate offense, and that group hasn’t consistently matched the thump St. Louis has shown this week. The Cardinals getting a run and a half in a game their bats have already proven they can dominate is the more attractive side of this number.

There’s also a bullpen fatigue angle that’s easy to overlook. New York’s relief corps has absorbed extra innings all series because Warren and the rest of a thinned-out rotation haven’t consistently worked deep into games. Leahy, by contrast, has given the Cardinals length most nights out, which keeps St. Louis’s own bullpen fresher for the middle innings when this game is likely to be decided. In a series where both offenses have shown they can score in bunches, that edge in pitching depth could be the deciding factor late.

Prediction and Best Bet

St. Louis has the hotter bat, the better recent pitching line, and a Yankees lineup still missing two of its most dangerous hitters. That combination is enough to lean against New York laying runs in its own ballpark.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Cardinals 6, Yankees 5
2. Best Bet: Cardinals +1.5

Bet the Cardinals to keep this one within a run and a half, with the Burleson-powered offense giving St. Louis a real shot to close out the series with a win.