Two divisions in football have the distinction of all four teams holding records above .500 through 12 weeks of the 2022 season. This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup pits two of them against one other from the AFC East as the Buffalo Bills travel to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots for the first time this season.
Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite on the road with the total posted at 43.5. The Bills have won four of the last five games in this series and have outscored the Pats by an average margin of 14 points per game in that stretch.
After a tough Thanksgiving Day for our player props, we look to bounce back in this Week 13 cold weather battle with another three-pack of plays.
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Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -103 at Caesars
Stevenson is likely to shoulder the bulk of the Patriots’ running game workload with Damien Harris missing practice this week. Over the last three games New England has played they are averaging 71.3 rushing yards per game, tied for third-worst in the NFL.
Stevenson’s rushing totals in those matchups against Indianapolis, the New York Jets, and Minnesota were 60, 26, and 36 yards, respectively. He managed just 3.3 yards per carry on 37 rushes.
Buffalo is 7th in the NFL in opponent rushing yards per game this season. They won’t hesitate to load the box with seven or eight defenders to force Mac Jones to beat them through the air, and we’ll play against Stevenson with that prediction in mind.
Jakobi Meyers OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Best Available Odds: +100 at DraftKings
Meyers looks to be on the right side of questionable to play on Thursday night despite battling a shoulder injury that has limited his practice time this week. His receptions have been much more volatile than his receiving yards over the last month.
We prefer this play for Meyers against a Bills secondary that’s allowed the second-most passing yards per game since Week 10.
He’s gone over the 50-yard mark in three of his last four games despite his receptions ranging from three to nine in those appearances. As a favorite target for Mac Jones, Meyers will continue his recent form and cross that 50-yard threshold again in Week 13.
Dawson Knox OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Available Odds: +126 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Knox’s involvement in the Bills’ offense this season has been spotty at best. He has six games this season with three or fewer catches and has had more than five catches just once in 10 games.
It would even be fair to say that this 2022 season has been a disappointment for the young tight end who just signed a contract extension with Buffalo in the offseason.
That said, Knox has two games in Buffalo’s last three with 6+ targets and has proven to still share a strong connection with quarterback Josh Allen that can be exploited in prop betting. At plus-money odds, we like Knox to grab five receptions on Thursday night and add a sweetener to this week’s best bets.