Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Ravens and Bills face off in a high-stakes playoff battle. See our prediction, betting analysis, and why Baltimore is the slight favorite for this showdown.
Josh Allen and the Bills take on the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC Divisional showdown

The Buffalo Bills are hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a high-stakes AFC Divisional Round showdown at Highmark Stadium tomorrow evening. These are 2 really good teams going head to head, and only one can move on to the Conference Championship. 

The Bills, fresh off of an absolutely dominant 31-7 win over the Broncos, are undefeated at home this season. The Ravens, who handled Pittsburgh decisively at 28-14 in the Wild Card round, enter as one-point favorites despite having to play the game in a tough road environment.

With snow in the forecast and temperatures expected in the teens, this game could come down to whoever makes the fewest mistakes in tough conditions.

Betting Odds and Analysis

Baltimore is currently favored by just a single point with a money line of -117. Buffalo, however, sits as a slight underdog at -102. The over/under is set at 51.5 which tells us this might be a high-scoring game despite the weather conditions at game time.

The Ravens bring a well-balanced attack led by Lamar Jackson, who threw for a whopping 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns in the regular season while adding 915 yards with his legs. Pairing Jackson’s versatility with Derrick Henry’s dominant rushing ability (let’s not forget he has 1,921 yards and 16 TDs on the season) gives Baltimore one of the league’s most dominant offenses.

Buffalo’s strength really lies in its consistency at home. They’re 9-0 this year at Highmark Stadium which includes the playoffs. Its dynamic offense led by Josh Allen, like Baltimore’s, is one of the best in the league. Allen has put up 3,731 passing yards and 28 TDs while chipping in 531 rushing yards. James Cook packs a punch on the ground game, and Khalil Shakir provides a reliable receiving option for Allen.

Both teams are fairly strong ATS — Baltimore is 7-3 in its last 10, while Buffalo is 6-4. However, with the narrow spread, this game is essentially a toss-up on paper. 

BAL Ravens BUF Bills
7-2 Home 9-0
6-3 Road 5-4
11-6-1 ATS 11-7
13-5 O/U 11-7
W5 Streak W1
30.3 Avg. Points For 30.9
20.8 Avg. Points Against 20.8
14.8 Avg. Winning Margin 15.6
4.4 Avg. Losing Margin 9.3

Key Matchups

The Ravens’ rushing attack will be critical for tomorrow’s cold-weather game.

Derrick Henry gashed the Bills for 199 yards in their Week 4 matchup and looked absolutely stellar. Combined with Lamar Jackson’s ability to extend plays even more with his legs, Buffalo’s defense will be tested — and tested a lot. If the Bills can’t control the line of scrimmage, Baltimore’s offense could dominate time of possession and run away with this game.

Buffalo, on the other hand, needs to make the most of their balanced approach. Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability, coupled with James Cook’s nose for finding the end zone, gives the Bills a fighting chance in this matchup. Allen was exceptional in the Wild Card round, completing an insane 76.9% of his passes and delivering 2 TDs on top of that.

Defensively, the Bills have to contain Jackson in the pocket while limiting Henry’s explosive plays. There’s no other way around that. Baltimore, meanwhile, will look to disrupt Allen’s rhythm, especially on deep throws for chunk plays.

Prediction and Our Best Bet

This game really comes down to each team’s execution in key moments.

Baltimore’s offense is slightly more dynamic, and Derrick Henry’s past success against the Bills simply cannot be ignored. With Jackson’s efficiency as a passer (119.6 QB rating) and his ability to scramble even in snowy conditions, the Ravens have the edge.

The weather could favor Baltimore’s ground game, which is the most reliable weapon on either side of the field. Buffalo’s unbeaten home streak is undeniably impressive, but Baltimore’s balanced attack and strong road record make them the better bet for this game.

It’s close enough that we could see Buffalo pull it off if the Ravens make a mistake or 2 and turn the ball over, but if these teams play like they have been, it’s Baltimore’s to lose.

  • HelloRookie’s Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 24.

Our best bet is Baltimore -1 against the spread. After all, you can throw the moneyline bet out with just a single point. Their offense, combined with a defense that can keep decent pressure on Josh Allen, gives them the tools to advance to the next round.

The over/under is a bit trickier given the weather, but we’re leaning slightly toward the under at 51.5. The cold and snow tend to make things a little sloppier and might keep some points off of the scoreboard.

No matter how you cut it, this game is going to be fun to watch and even more fun to bet on.

Matt Brown Bio Avatar

Matt Brown


Head of Sports Betting and DFS

Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.