Georgia has allowed more than 20 points in a game exactly once all season, and Missouri is a 15.5-point underdog trying to become the second team to manage it.
Quick take:
- Pick: Missouri +15.5
- Why: Georgia wins comfortably, but Missouri’s passing game and turnover-forcing defense can keep a 16-point cover within reach.
- The number to watch: Georgia 14.0 points per game allowed against Missouri’s 30.2 scored.
The No. 1 Bulldogs (8-1, 6-1 SEC) host the Missouri Tigers (6-3, 3-3) at Sanford Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, the last SEC regular-season game on Dooley Field this year. Georgia is coming off a 42-7 demolition of No. 10 Ole Miss in Oxford, the largest win over a top-10 opponent in an opponent’s stadium in Georgia history.
Missouri arrives with a different mood. The Tigers led Texas 20-13 late in the third quarter last Saturday, then gave up 14 unanswered points in a 34-20 loss that effectively ended their playoff path.
Georgia Is a Two-Touchdown-Plus Favorite, and the Market Is Not Shy
Books have Georgia laying 15.5 points, with the moneyline sitting around Georgia -700 and Missouri +525 and the total hovering between 47.5 and 48.5. That is a huge number for a conference game, and you can compare it across books on our live NCAAF odds page, but it fits a Bulldogs team that has outscored opponents 370-26 this season and 230-57 in the first half alone. Missouri has been a profitable underdog in this series, covering seven of the last 10 meetings, though it is only 4-5 against the spread this season. Georgia is 6-3 against the spread. If you are shopping for a book, our DraftKings promo code page covers the current new-user offer.
Recent Form
Georgia’s only loss came 27-24 to Auburn on Oct. 17; since then the Bulldogs have beaten Florida and Ole Miss by a combined 69-15. Missouri has alternated good and bad: a 45-17 win over Florida and a 34-10 win at Arkansas sit next to a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss and last week’s defeat to Texas.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Texas Longhorns | -3.5 / 47.5 | Lost 20-34 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Arkansas Razorbacks | -14.5 / 45.5 | Won 10-34 | Won / Under |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Ole Miss Rebels | +7.5 / 56.5 | Lost 31-3 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Texas A&M Aggies | -6.5 / 49.5 | Won 27-6 | Won / Under |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Florida Gators | +3.5 / 54.5 | Won 45-17 | Won / Over |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Mississippi State Bulldogs | +7.5 / 59.5 | Lost 31-24 | Won / Under |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Troy Trojans | -19.5 / 56.5 | Won 27-17 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Kansas Jayhawks | -5.5 / 50.5 | Won 21-38 | Won / Over |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions | -57.5 / 63.5 | Won 54-14 | Lost / Over |
Showing 9 of last 10 games for Missouri Tigers — more will appear as games are played.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | @Ole Miss Rebels | -13.5 / 63.5 | Won 7-42 | Won / Under |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Florida Gators | -13.5 / 50.5 | Won 27-8 | Won / Under |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auburn Tigers | -21.5 / 59.5 | Lost 24-27 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Alabama Crimson Tide | -2.5 / 46.5 | Won 17-20 | Won / Under |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Vanderbilt Commodores | -31.5 / 50.5 | Won 38-14 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Oklahoma Sooners | -17.5 / 41.5 | Won 41-13 | Won / Over |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Arkansas Razorbacks | -25.5 / 53.5 | Won 17-45 | Won / Over |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Arkansas Razorbacks | -27.5 / 41.5 | Won 17-45 | Won / Over |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | -59.5 / 70.5 | Won 70-20 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Tennessee State Tigers | -55.5 / 61.5 | Won 63-3 | Won / Over |
No meetings recorded yet between Missouri Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs — we'll track this matchup starting with their next game.
Where Missouri Can Hang Around
Georgia’s offense is the best scoring unit in the SEC at 41.1 points per game and second in the conference in rushing at 210.7 yards per game. Quarterback Gunner Stockton ranks fourth nationally in passing efficiency at 180.1 and completes 70.9 percent of his throws, and he produced a 252.2 efficiency rating against Ole Miss on only nine completions, four of them touchdowns. The Bulldogs’ 45 touchdowns split 22 rushing and 23 passing, and sophomore Talyn Taylor leads the receiving group with 25 catches for 426 yards and six scores.
Missouri’s best argument is its own quarterback. Austin Simmons has thrown for 2,204 yards, 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions, and the Tigers rank third in the SEC in passing offense at 256.7 yards per game. His 83.8 PFF passing grade ranks third in the conference. The Tigers also own a +9 turnover margin, second best in the SEC, and their rush defense (95.8 yards per game, third in the league) is built to make Georgia work for yardage.
Only one team has scored more than 20 points on Georgia this season, and none has topped 17 in the regular season.
The caution for Missouri is the injury list. Edge rusher Langden Kitchen is out for the season with a knee injury, and running back Malae Fonoti, tackle Josh Atkins and tight end Gavin Hoffman are also out. Missouri’s ground game was already the weak spot, with Jamal Roberts managing 66 yards on 19 carries against Texas. Georgia has just one player out, outside linebacker Amaris Williams, with center Drew Bobo and defensive tackle Josh Horton listed as questionable.
Georgia is 8-0 against Missouri under Kirby Smart and owns a 12-1 series edge, with 10 straight wins. The last meeting was a 30-21 Bulldogs win in Athens in 2023, and the Tigers’ lone series win came in Athens in 2013, 41-26.
Prediction and Best Bet
Georgia wins this game, and likely by two scores. The Bulldogs are healthier than they have been all year, they are at home, and their defense has held opponents to 83.8 rushing yards per game. The question is the number. Fifteen and a half is steep against a quarterback who protects the ball as well as Simmons does and a team that forces turnovers, and Missouri is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings with Georgia. A 34-20 Georgia win, for example, still cashes the Tigers.
The pick:
- Prediction: Georgia 34, Missouri 20
- Best Bet: Missouri +15.5
Take the points. The Bulldogs should control it, but a Tigers passing attack that rarely throws interceptions is the kind of offense that can find a late touchdown to keep the final margin inside the number.
