Seven NHL games hit the ice tonight, from Colorado at Toronto and Minnesota at Montreal at 7:00 p.m. ET to Nashville at Los Angeles at 10:00 p.m. ET. A full slate means plenty of player props, and shots on goal are one of the easiest markets for newer bettors to understand because you only need a player to put the puck on net.

The idea behind a shots on goal prop is simple: a player’s shot volume is much steadier than whether the puck actually goes in. Goals are streaky and lucky, but a top forward who gets heavy ice time, power-play minutes and a green light to shoot will usually keep firing. These three picks all sit near the top of tonight’s projections for 3+ shots.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at Toronto

MacKinnon (#29) has 65 shots on goal through 18 games for Colorado, which works out to about 3.6 per night while he averages roughly 20:40 of ice time. That is a big number for a center, and a lot of it comes from the power play, where he skates around four minutes a game. A line of 2.5 means he needs three shots, and his average sits comfortably above that.

The matchup helps too. Toronto has allowed around 29 shots per game this season, one of the higher totals in the league, so Colorado should get plenty of looks. Public shot models project MacKinnon for about 3.6 shots tonight with a 68% chance of reaching three or more, the best number on the whole slate.

He has been a little up and down lately, with games of 4, 1, 1, 2 and 5 shots over his last five. That is normal for any shooter, but it is exactly why a 2.5 line is worth backing over a 3.5 line. You only need an average night, not a big one.

Matt Boldy Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at Montreal

Boldy (#12) leads the entire NHL with 81 shots on goal, which is about 4.3 per game for Minnesota. He plays on the first line, logs around 21 and a half minutes a night, and fired seven shots at San Jose on November 6. When a player averages more than four shots, a number of 2.5 is asking for well below his normal output.

Montreal gives up about 27.5 shots per game, which is closer to the league middle than a shot-suppression wall. Our projection for Boldy is 3.4 shots with a 64% chance of getting to three. It is worth noting he finished with just two shots against Tampa Bay in his last outing, so this is a bounce-back spot rather than a guarantee. If your book is hanging 3.5 instead of 2.5, check the price before you decide, since the lower number is the safer play.

Alex DeBrincat Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at St. Louis

DeBrincat (#93) is a pure shooter. He has 66 shots on goal in 18 games for Detroit, about 3.7 per night, and he sits ninth in the league in total shots. He took four shots in each of his last two games shown on his log, against Florida and Tampa Bay, and he still gets over three minutes of power-play time.

St. Louis allows about 28 shots per game, so the Red Wings should have chances to get the puck to the net. The model has him at about 3.3 shots with a 62% to 63% chance of clearing 2.5. PrizePicks has the line at 2.5, so confirm the number in your app before locking it in, because lines can move after we post.

Lock These In

All three players are among the league leaders in shot volume, get power-play time, and face teams that give up a healthy number of shots. If you are just getting started with props, our PrizePicks review walks through how those lines work, and you can compare current prices on the NHL odds page before you place anything.

Shot props are about volume, not luck, so lean on the players who shoot the most and let the math work. Always bet within your budget, and confirm lines and lineups before puck drop.